class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide # Session 2: Terrorism in 2040 ### Thierry Warin, PhD --- class: inverse, center, middle > "Intelligence does not claim infallibility for its prophecies. Intelligence merely holds that the answer which it gives is the most deeply and objectively based and carefully considered estimate." > herman Kent, Founder of the Office of National Estimates --- ### Facts - NIC: Afghanistan, Women's economic, political, social status https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/SOCM-AFG_Women.pdf - https://www.dni.gov/index.php/features/national-strategy-for-counterterrorism --- ### Agenda 1. Introduction 2. Data 3. The U.S strategy for counterterrorism 4. 5. 6. --- class: inverse, center, middle # 1. Introduction --- - The killing of Jamal Khashoggi https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Assessment-Saudi-Gov-Role-in-JK-Death-20210226v2.pdf - Foreign threats to the 2020 US federal elections https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ICA-declass-16MAR21.pdf --- class: center, middle # Terrorism --- .panelset[ .panel[.panel-name[Terrorism] <img src="https://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/resource-thumbnail-gti-2020-ppt.jpg" width="80%" height="80%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> Source: <https://www.visionofhumanity.org/resources/> ] .panel[.panel-name[Data] A few statistics: - Deaths from Terrorism fall by 15% for fifth consecutive year to 13,800 - The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) core diminishes – first year where they caused less than 1,000 deaths since their inception - Far-right terrorism increases 250% in last five years- from low base - Deaths fall in the 4 countries with most deaths - ISIL centre of gravity shifts to sub-Saharan Africa – 7 of 10 largest increases in SSA - ISIL affiliates launch attacks in 27 countries ] .panel[.panel-name[Impacts] <img src="./images/terrorism1.png" width="100%" height="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> ] .panel[.panel-name[Costs] <img src="./images/terrorism2.png" width="100%" height="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> ] .panel[.panel-name[Evolution] <img src="./images/terrorism3.png" width="100%" height="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> ] ] --- class: center, middle # War --- .panelset[ .panel[.panel-name[Peace] - Negative correlation between terrorism and FDI inflows for manufacturing, trade and repair, and construction sector - Rise of tensions between countries... <img src="https://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/resource-thumbnail-evp-2021.jpg" width="80%" height="80%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> ] .panel[.panel-name[War and location] .pull-left[ ### War and Localization Choices - Effect of violence on FDIs depends on the type of violence, the characteristics of the industry, and the level of internationalization of the firm - Negative correlation with investments except for natural resources - For other sectors: firms that are «less » international are more sensitive to armed conflicts - Other types of violence (terrorism, killings) don’t have an impact on localization choices ] .pull-right[ ### War and MNCs’ Responses - A typical firm’s response is to exit - The more experience in conflict zones, the more likely a firm will delay departure - Valuable resources can become source of vulnerabilities that prompt early withdrawal ] ] ]