Session 4: Flows: trade, finance and people in 2040

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# Session 4: Flows: trade, finance and people in 2040
### Thierry Warin, PhD

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>     "Intelligence does not claim infallibility for its prophecies. Intelligence merely holds that the answer which it gives is the most deeply and objectively based and carefully considered estimate."

> herman Kent, Founder of the Office of National Estimates

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### Facts

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### Agenda

1. Introduction

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# 1. Introduction

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## War and its Consequences: The Refugee Crisis

### Displacement in the 21st century (2000-2014)

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<div class="fluid-row">
<div class="col-xs-3">
<div class="container-fluid crosstalk-bscols">
<div class="fluid-row">
<div class="col-xs-12">
<div id="country" class="form-group crosstalk-input-select crosstalk-input">
<label class="control-label" for="country">Region</label>
<div>
<select multiple></select>
<script type="application/json" data-for="country">{
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}</script>
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</div>
</div>
<div class="col-xs-12">
<div class="form-group crosstalk-input crosstalk-input-slider js-range-slider" id="year">
<label class="control-label" for="year">Year</label>
<input data-type="double" data-min="2000" data-max="2020" data-from="2000" data-to="2020" data-step="1" data-grid="true" data-grid-num="10" data-grid-snap="false" data-prettify-separator="" data-keyboard="true" data-keyboard-step="5" data-drag-interval="true" data-data-type="number"/>
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---

### Major refugee- hosting countries (2019)

<div class="container-fluid crosstalk-bscols">
<div class="fluid-row">
<div class="col-xs-3">
<div class="container-fluid crosstalk-bscols">
<div class="fluid-row">
<div class="col-xs-12">
<div id="country" class="form-group crosstalk-input-select crosstalk-input">
<label class="control-label" for="country">Add a country</label>
<div>
<select multiple></select>
<script type="application/json" data-for="country">{
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    "Jordan": ["3", "4"],
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    "Pakistan": ["7", "8"],
    "Turkey": ["9", "10"],
    "Uganda": ["11", "12"]
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
</div>
</div>

---

### Major refugee- sourcing countries (2019)

<div class="container-fluid crosstalk-bscols">
<div class="fluid-row">
<div class="col-xs-3">
<div class="container-fluid crosstalk-bscols">
<div class="fluid-row">
<div class="col-xs-12">
<div id="country" class="form-group crosstalk-input-select crosstalk-input">
<label class="control-label" for="country">Add a country</label>
<div>
<select multiple></select>
<script type="application/json" data-for="country">{
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    "value": ["Afghanistan", "Congo, Dem. Rep.", "Myanmar", "Somalia", "South Sudan", "Syrian Arab Republic"],
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</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
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</div>

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## The Refugee Crisis in Europe

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## The Refugee Crisis in Europe

#### Migrant and refugee fatalities since 2000

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## The Refugee Crisis in Europe

#### Number of tweets by date

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## The Refugee Crisis in Europe

#### Joy + surprise

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### The Refugee Crisis in Europe

#### Disgust + fear

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### The Refugee Crisis in Europe

#### Anger + sadness

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### Effect of Immigration on Countries

![](./images2/immigration.png)