Session 5: The environment in 2040

# Session 5: The environment in 2040
### Thierry Warin, PhD

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>     "Intelligence does not claim infallibility for its prophecies. Intelligence merely holds that the answer which it gives is the most deeply and objectively based and carefully considered estimate."

> herman Kent, Founder of the Office of National Estimates

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### Facts

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### Agenda

1. Introduction

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# 1. Introduction

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> Break-out Rooms

Mondo Challenge <www.mondo.international>

- 4 teams

- 4 presentations

- 4 presentations (5 slides): health, corruption, terrorism, climate change

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# 2. Health Risks

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Will this dynamic continue?

- Through this question, we understand that **the complexity of analysis has greatly increased over the last 30 years**.

- The fall of the Berlin Wall at the political level, China's entry into the WTO at the economic level, the 2008 crisis at the financial level and the Covid-19 at the health/economic level are four examples of the new global realities that are rendering the old analytical frameworks obsolete.
  
  - The **understanding of international business dynamics** requires a theoretical and empirical tool that is commensurate with this new complexity.

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[![](./images/publicdebt.png)](http://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/en/#data)

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With each crisis, the **societal models change**. These changes occur at different levels and with different intentions.

A first lesson from past crises is that humans learn from shocks and integrate responses.

This is somewhat the lesson of the 2008 crisis:

- new rules have emerged,

- international institutions are better organized, and

- financial risk management has improved.
  
> The Covid-19 crisis has and will have impacts at both the local and international levels. This crisis reinforces a dynamic that some people already named with the concept of **de-globalization** (Berjeijk, 2019).

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# 4. Environmental risk

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![](./images/temp.png)

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See here: <https://climate.nasa.gov/interactives/climate-time-machine>

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