Session 6: Scenarios and solutions for 2040

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# Session 6: Scenarios and solutions for 2040
### Thierry Warin, PhD

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>     "Intelligence does not claim infallibility for its prophecies. Intelligence merely holds that the answer which it gives is the most deeply and objectively based and carefully considered estimate."

> herman Kent, Founder of the Office of National Estimates

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### Facts

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### Agenda

1. Introduction

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# 1. Introduction

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.panelset[
.panel[.panel-name[Science]

### The Scientific Consensus vs. “Public Wisdom”

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change:

- Established in 1988

- Nobel Peace Prize Winner (2007)

- Concluded in its first report (1990) that CO2 emissions resulting from human activities are responsible for over half of the enhanced greenhouse effect (a view that was swiftly accepted as for fact by Shell and BP)

]

.panel[.panel-name[Climate]

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.panel[.panel-name[Information]

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.panel[.panel-name[Google trends]

See here: <https://trends.google.com/trends/yis/2020/GLOBAL/>

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# 5. Solutions

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## Global Problems as a Result of Institutional Voids

Require a variety of approaches by different types of actors including:

- Non-governmental organizations (NGOs)

- Interest groups and/or coalitions

- Multinational enterprises (MNEs)

These actors also formulate market and nonmarket strategies to get around, or substitute for, institutional voids (Cantwell et al., 2010; Child et al., 2012; Mair et al., 2012; Teegen et al., 2004; Meyer & Nguyen, 2005)

> The term 'institutional void' may reflect a less developed, inefficient or poor- functioning form that can exist in any type of market.

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.panelset[
.panel[.panel-name[MNEs]

.pull-letf[

- Danone and its new mission

- Even in a country that is known for its top social programs, board of directors may still be more influenced by the bottom line.

]

.pull-right[

![](https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQ4wtfUw4zXZivC0JguBkTO9CvafWLNDzpnyQ&usqp=CAU)

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.panel[.panel-name[International Climate Negotiations]

### Paris Agreement

- Drafted between November 30 to December 12 Sealed on December 12 ,2015

- Accession by 55 UNFCCC Parties accounting for 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions required to enter into force

- Effective as of November 4, 2016

- Each country establishes its targets; renewal of targets can only be more ambitious (bottom up approach as opposed to top down)

- All countries are required to submit emissions reductions plans

]

.panel[.panel-name[Carbon emitters]

|  						  							  								 Main Carbon Emitters (2016)  							 						 					 	|                        	|                                           	|
|:-------------------------------------:	|:----------------------:	|:-----------------------------------------:	|
|              						  							  								 Rank  							 						 					            	|     						  							  								 Country  							 						 					   	|  						  							  								 Carbon Emissions (million tons)  							 						 					 	|
|               						  							  								 1  							 						 					              	|      						  							  								 China  							 						 					    	|               						  							  								 10,357  							 						 					             	|
|               						  							  								 2  							 						 					              	|       						  							  								 USA  							 						 					     	|               						  							  								 5,414  							 						 					              	|
|               						  							  								 3  							 						 					              	|      						  							  								 India  							 						 					    	|               						  							  								 2,274  							 						 					              	|
|               						  							  								 4  							 						 					              	|     						  							  								 Russia  							 						 					    	|               						  							  								 1,617  							 						 					              	|
|               						  							  								 5  							 						 					              	|      						  							  								 Japan  							 						 					    	|               						  							  								 1,237  							 						 					              	|
|               						  							  								 6  							 						 					              	|     						  							  								 Germany  							 						 					   	|                						  							  								 798  							 						 					               	|
|               						  							  								 7  							 						 					              	|      						  							  								 Iran  							 						 					     	|                						  							  								 648  							 						 					               	|
|               						  							  								 8  							 						 					              	|  						  							  								 Saudi Arabia  							 						 					 	|                						  							  								 601  							 						 					               	|
|               						  							  								 9  							 						 					              	|   						  							  								 South Korea  							 						 					 	|                						  							  								 592  							 						 					               	|
|               						  							  								 10  							 						 					             	|     						  							  								 Canada  							 						 					    	|                						  							  								 557  							 						 					               	|

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.panel[.panel-name[Air quality]

<http://aqicn.org/map/world/>

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.panelset[
.panel[.panel-name[NGOs]

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.panel[.panel-name[NGOs and limitations]

Even if they can help raise awareness about issues, they are not in a position of power: they need firms’ decision-makers to act for sustainable changes.

What Is Needed to Solve a Global Problem ?

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# 6. Conclusion

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.panelset[
.panel[.panel-name[Summary]

- A number of issues in the global landscape escape the authority of the state, the market, or international institutions

- NGOs can play a role in filling these voids, either through advocacy and pressures on MNEs and institutions, or through operations on the field

- Despite their influence, NGOs are not in a position of power when it comes to addressing global issues

**There is a need for Inclusive Innovation**

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.panel[.panel-name[What can we do?]

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.panel[.panel-name[Individuals]

> "The issues we face are so big and the targets are so challenging that we cannot do it alone, so there is a certain humility and a recognition that we need to invite other people in. When you look at any issue, such as food or water scarcity, it is very clear that no individual institution, government or company can provide the solution"

Paul Polman, CEO of Unilever (as quoted in Confino, 2012)

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.panel[.panel-name[Global architecture]

Today's global architecture

- As for **multinationals**, they will continue to exist with value chains that will need to further integrate risk management.

- For **governments**, economic and industrial policies will need to give even greater consideration to international risk management.

- As far as **international institutions** are concerned, their coordinating role will have to be strengthened to deal with global crises (e.g. societal, political and environmental).

- In short, international risk management is a necessity in this context of growing complexity. And **withdrawal does not diminish this complexity.**.

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.panel[.panel-name[Technology]

- The good news in the face of these risks, which are sometimes new and often growing, is that **humanity today is the most technologically advanced**.

- We have access to **algorithmic analysis tools** thanks to **artificial intelligence** techniques and **mass data** like never before.

- The international risk manager or analyst has access to this toolbox: **data science for international business**.

- In addition to other methodologies, with this toolkit, the analyst can look for **weak signals** anywhere on the planet and work on better risk analysis models and solutions.

- Understanding international business dynamics is therefore more necessary than ever.

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.panel[.panel-name[Vote]

- Lack of economic opportunity and employment

- Safety / security / wellbeing

- Lack of education

-  Food and water security

- Government accountability and transparency / corruption

- Religious conflicts

- Poverty

- Inequality (income, discrimination)

- Large scale conflict / wars

- Climate change / destruction of nature

[Source](https://www.globalshapers.org/)

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.panel[.panel-name[Results]

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.panel[.panel-name[Global Shapers]

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.panel[.panel-name[Sand Castles]

Be one of them, apply: <https://www.globalshapers.org/hubs/montreal-hub>

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