Session 2: Terrorism as a paradigm shift for 2040

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# Session 2: Terrorism as a paradigm shift for 2040
### Thierry Warin, PhD

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"Intelligence does not claim infallibility for its prophecies. Intelligence merely holds that the answer which it gives is the most deeply and objectively based and carefully considered estimate."

> herman Kent, Founder of the Office of National Estimates

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### Agenda

1. Introduction

2. Is it terrorism?

3. Terrorism data

4. Afghanistan

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# 1. Introduction

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The word ‘terror’ emerged in the English language as a descriptor for the actions of French revolutionaries against their domestic enemies in 1793 and 1794, most notably referring to repression in the form of executions.

Beginning with citations from the 1790s, terrorism was quite literally defined as

(1) government by intimidation as directed and carried out by the party in power in France during the Revolution of 1789-94 and
  
  (2) policy intended to strike terror in those against whom it is adopted (Tilly, 2004: 8).
    
The latter half of this early definition of terror has persisted through global history and politics, with many scholars agreeing that the point of terrorism is to terrorise, with the act of doing so historically assumed by an organised force (Chailand & Blin, 2007: 2).

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Today's terrorist landscape is more **fluid and complex** than ever. For this reason, counterterrorism remains a top priority for this Administration.

Our principal terrorist enemies are radical Islamist terrorist groups that seek to conduct attacks globally, violate our borders, and radicalize and recruit potential extremists within the United States and abroad.

We continue to face threats from **Iran**, the most prominent state sponsor of terrorism, through its global network of operatives and its ongoing support to an array of terrorist groups.

Terrorists motivated by other forms of extremism also use violence to threaten the homeland and challenge United States interests.

These terrorist threats are **different in many ways**, but they all seek **to use violence** to undermine the United States and disrupt the American way of life.

- https://www.dni.gov/index.php/features/national-strategy-for-counterterrorism

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# Introduction

- Terrorism before 2001 and after 2001:
  
    - Ideological: Red Brigades
    - National: Corsica, ETA, OLP
    - Post-colonial
    - Religious
    - Religious and National: Ireland, Palestine

- The 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001 triggered profound changes in the US social and governance systems that have persevered for almost two decades.

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# 2. Is it terrorism?

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## Is it terrorism?

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## Is it terrorism?

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# Terrorism data

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Source: <https://www.visionofhumanity.org/resources/>

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- Deaths from terrorism fell for the fifth consecutive year in 2019 to 13,826 deaths, representing a 15 per cent decrease from the prior year.

- The Middle East and North Africa (MENA), Russia and Eurasia, South America and South Asia regions all recorded falls in deaths from terrorism of at least 20 per cent.

- Although terrorism has fallen in most regions, it has become more widespread in others. Seven of the ten countries with the largest increase in terrorism were in sub-Saharan Africa.

- Burkina Faso had the largest increase in terrorism, where deaths increased by 590 per cent to 593. This was followed by Sri Lanka where terrorism deaths increased from one in 2018 to 266 in 2019.

- Afghanistan remains the country with the highest impact from terrorism. However, terrorism deaths in the country declined in 2019 for the first time in three years.

- The Taliban remained the world’s deadliest terrorist group in 2019. However, terrorist deaths attributed to the group declined by 18 per cent to 4,990. Whether the peace talks in Afghanistan have a substantial impact on terrorist activity remains to be seen

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- As the level of terrorist activity continues to fall in the Middle East and South Asia, new terrorist threats are beginning to emerge. The most prominent of these are the spread of ISIL affiliate groups in sub-Saharan Africa, and the emergence of far-right terrorism in Western Europe and North America.

- ISIL’s global reach has steadily expanded with ISIL-related attacks recorded across seven regions: Asia-
Pacific, Europe, MENA, North America, Russia and Eurasia, South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.

- Outside of Iraq and Syria, ISIL-affiliated groups and individuals have perpetrated over 3,000 attacks in 48 countries since 2013.

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- The number of countries recording an ISIL-related attack increased from two in 2013, to 27 in 2019.

- In the West, ISIL directed or inspired at least 78 terror attacks between 2014 and 2019, resulting in 471 fatalities. France recorded the most ISIL-related terrorism deaths, followed by the United States and Belgium. However, there was only one attack recorded in the West in 2019.

- Forty-one per cent of total ISIL-related attacks in 2019 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa, highlighting the shift in ISIL-related attacks away from the Middle East.

- Far-right terrorism has increased substantially in the West. There was one recorded far-right terrorist attack in 2010, this had increased to 49 in 2019.

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# Afghanistan

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## Afghanistan

- NIC: Afghanistan, Women's economic, political, social status

> The Taliban remains broadly consistent in its restrictive approach to women’s rights and would roll back much of the past two decades’ progress if the group regained national power.  The Taliban has seen minimal leadership turnover, maintains inflexible negotiating positions, and enforces strict social constraints in areas that it already controls.

https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/SOCM-AFG_Women.pdf

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# Conclusion

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## Conclusion

- What are the reasons for terrorism?

- A clash of civilizations?

- A call for revenge?

- A message to let countries be sovereign? but who is in charge of failed states? What about peoples' manipulation? Should more human rights society let go, abandon the populations leaving oppressed or even brain washed?

- Are countries the right level of analysis? Do we need a new framework to understand the future in 2040?

- Is terrorism war?

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## Conclusion

The verticals of terrorism:

- country

- political ideology

- economic ideology

- religion

- geography

- ethnicity

= imposing on others or revenge for having been a victim