Session 3: Populism in 2040

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# Session 3: Populism in 2040
### Thierry Warin, PhD

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“The problem with call-in shows is quite simple, if you only dare to admit it: Democracy is best when not everyone can be heard all the time. If we are constantly reminded of all the stupid things that people say and think, it becomes rather difficult to remember the good and noble arguments for everyone to be able to participate and decide.”

> Johan Hakelius

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### Facts

- DNI on the origin of SARS-Cov-2: https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Unclassified-Summary-of-Assessment-on-COVID-19-Origins.pdf

- "China’s cooperation most likely would be needed to reach a conclusive assessment of the origins of COVID-19. Beijing, however, continues to hinder the global investigation, resist sharing  information and blame other countries, including the United States. These actions reflect, in  part, China’s government’s own uncertainty about where an investigation could lead as well as its frustration the international community is using the issue to exert political pressure on China."

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### Agenda

1. Introduction

2. Definitions

3. Populism as a risk for 2040

4. Conclusion

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# 1. Introduction

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## 1. Introduction

- what have we learned from our conversations about terrorism?

- We cannot look at the future with the framework from the past. The world population was way smaller, encounters were rarer.
  
  - Other questions: who owns the land? see John Locke, etc. The Netherlands? The families? The Zulus? Who was there before the Zulus? Remember history is always in the making. You do not want to live like 2000 years ago. You would probably be close to the end of your life already.
  
  - Also, we have science now. If we were to live like 2000 years ago, we would be in a different mindset.
  
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## 1. Introduction

- Anyway, a lot of leaders and citizens from the world look at the world right now with the lenses from the past
  
  - A lot of leaders and citizens blame their current situation (with sound moral justification anyway) on the past
  
  - What would be H1 compared to H0? What would be the current state of the world with a different past? Would the world be better if, for instance, the Ottoman Empire would have continued and conquered even more land? What would be potential scenarios, costs and benefits?

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## 1. Introduction

- Domestic violent extremism https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/UnclassSummaryofDVEAssessment-17MAR21.pdf

- Legacies of colonialism: https://journals.sagepub.com/legacies_of_colonialism?utm_medium=email&utm_content=1J0280&utm_campaign=legacies_of_colonialism&utm_term=&em=e21ea4ebf359d1a6b9cba123885a349e25b2283caaa084baed305556b264cfca&utm_source=adestra

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# 2. Definitions

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## 2. Definitions

- Populism

- Nationalism

- Patriotism

- Countries and their sub-definitions

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## 2. Definitions

> “Patriotism is defensive; nationalism is aggressive. Patriotism is the love of a particular land, with its particular traditions; nationalism is the love of something less tangible, of the myth of a "people," justifying many things, a political and ideological substitute for religion. Patriotism is old-fashioned (and, at times and in some places, aristocratic); nationalism is modern and populist.” John Lukacs

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## 2. Definitions

> “populists are not generally “against institutions,” and they are not destined to self-destruct once in power. They only oppose those institutions that, in their view, fail to produce the morally (as opposed to empirically) correct political outcomes. And that happens only when they are in opposition. Populists in power are fine with institutions—which is to say, their institutions.” Jan-Werner Müller

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# 3. Populism as a risk for 2040

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.panelset[
.panel[.panel-name[Populism]

Source: <https://www.visionofhumanity.org/resources/>

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.panel[.panel-name[Data]

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.panel[.panel-name[Impacts]

<https://www.visionofhumanity.org/maps/global-terrorism-index/#/>

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---

.panelset[
.panel[.panel-name[Populism]

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.panel[.panel-name[Data]

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.panel[.panel-name[Impacts]

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---

.panelset[
.panel[.panel-name[Nationalism]

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.panel[.panel-name[Data]

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.panel[.panel-name[Impacts]

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.panelset[
.panel[.panel-name[Covid]

<https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now%201-H&q=covid>

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.panel[.panel-name[Political Manifesto]

The dynamics of populism:

<https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352340919302586?via%3Dihub>

<https://figshare.com/articles/figure/toblendornottoblend_pdf/7781051/2>

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.panel[.panel-name[Canadian elections]

<https://warin.ca/elections_en/>

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## 3. Populism as a risk for 2040

- A reaction to US empirialism

- The US empirialism as a proxy to the clash of civilizations: the western world versus the rest

- The concept of US empirialism:

- behind the notion of "US", there is a complex cobweb of institutions and actors, with counter power, multinational corporations, etc. This is true for a lot of so-called "developped countries", so is there anything to learn from that?
  
  - behind the notion of "China", do we have the same complex cobweb? what about SEOs?

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## 3. Populism as a risk for 2040

- For next session:  
  - trade seen as empirialism
  - FDI seen as empirialism
  - migration seen as empirialism

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# Conclusion

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## Conclusion

Our verticals:

- country

- religion

- geography

- community / ethnicity

- political ideology

- economic ideology

= needs to be reconciled in our **institutions**

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## Conclusion

- Living on a space ship with no wheel, so no way to control its trajectory, hence no reason to try to control it

- So, why thinking in terms of clash of civilizations and using populism and populist arguments to support that?

- Living on a multi-cultural space ship: cross-cultural management = stop the blaming game, reflect on yourself

- Would the only reason to react be "too big" human rights violation?

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## References

- Sanger W. and Warin Th. (2019) “Jaccard Similarity of 1517 European Political Manifestos across 27 Countries (1945-2017)” Data in Brief, DIS-S-18-02150 [DOI: 10.1016/j.dib.2019.103907]

- de Marcellis-Warin N., Sanger W. and Warin Th. (2019) "Text-as-Data Analysis of Political Parties versus Government Parties: To Blend or not to Blend? The Appendix", DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.7781051.v2, pp.1-63, February.

- Warin Th. (2018) “Élections en mots-clics : avancée ou menace pour la démocratie ?”, Revue Gestion, Vol. 43:3, pp. 26-29. [DOI: 10.3917/riges.433.0026]