class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide # Session 4: Global Flows: Trade, Finance and People in 2040 ### Thierry Warin, PhD --- class: inverse, center, middle "Intelligence does not claim infallibility for its prophecies. Intelligence merely holds that the answer which it gives is the most deeply and objectively based and carefully considered estimate." > Herman Kent, Founder of the Office of National Estimates --- ### Agenda 1. Introduction 2. Trade and Peace 3. Global Migrations 4. Forced Global Migrations 5. The Refugee Crisis in Europe: A Case Study 6. Conclusion --- class: inverse, center, middle # 1. Introduction --- ### Introduction - The (Cyber) Security of Global Supply Chains: Is this a Blind Spot for Industry 4.0? <https://ecipe.org/blog/cyber-security-global-supply-chains-industry-40/> - foreign Direct Investments: What about SOEs and the Silk Road? - Migrations flows: push and pull factors --- class: center, middle <iframe width= 100% height="600" src="https://www.heritage.org/index/heatmap" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe> --- class: inverse, center, middle # 2. Trade and Peace --- ### Trade and peace > Case Study: The economic impact of Bulgaria’s accession to the European Union - Bulgaria joined the European Union on 1 January 2007, after a long period of preparations. - This followed a 28 per cent decline in GDP immediately after the collapse of the Iron Curtain in the early 1990s. - Accession to the bloc was seen as a way to improve the country’s regional integration, boosting foreign direct investment, cross-border trade and tourism. - Thus, accession would provide a substantial impetus to the country’s Good Relations with Neighbours and overall PPI scores. --- ### Trade and peace - In preparation for accession, the Bulgarian government and international agencies implemented a range of measures that increased income and consumption across the nation. - Authorities took steps to reign in inflation and to attract greater levels of foreign direct investment. - Deep economic reforms were also undertaken to reduce the size of the government and to improve administrative efficiency. - As a consequence, between 2003 and 2007, the average per-adult income rose by 37 per cent across the country. - In rural areas this increase reached 57 per cent. - Household consumption increased by 21 per cent over the period. - Bulgaria’s GDP, which had hovered below $20 billion per year (current US dollars) for the entire 1990s, soared to $54 billion in 2008. https://www.visionofhumanity.org/building-peace-and-prosperity-through-international-trade/ --- class: inverse, center, middle # 3. Global Migrations --- class: center, middle <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/UN-population-projection-medium-variant?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> --- class: center, middle <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-demand-for-education-world-population-and-projected-growth-to-2100-by-age-group?time=1950..2100" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> --- class: center, middle <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-demand-for-education-world-population-and-projected-growth-to-2100-by-age-group?time=1950..2100" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> --- class: center, middle <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-demand-for-education-world-population-and-projected-growth-to-2100-by-age-group?time=1950..2100" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> --- class: center, middle <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-demand-for-education-world-population-and-projected-growth-to-2100-by-age-group?time=1950..2100" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> --- class: center, middle <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-demand-for-education-world-population-and-projected-growth-to-2100-by-age-group?time=1950..2100" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> --- class: center, middle <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-demand-for-education-world-population-and-projected-growth-to-2100-by-age-group?time=1950..2100" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> --- class: center, middle <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-demand-for-education-world-population-and-projected-growth-to-2100-by-age-group?time=1950..2100" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> --- class: center, middle <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-demand-for-education-world-population-and-projected-growth-to-2100-by-age-group?time=1950..2100" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> --- class: center, middle <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-demand-for-education-world-population-and-projected-growth-to-2100-by-age-group?time=1950..2100" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> --- class: center, middle <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-demand-for-education-world-population-and-projected-growth-to-2100-by-age-group?time=1950..2100" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> --- class: center, middle <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-demand-for-education-world-population-and-projected-growth-to-2100-by-age-group?time=1950..2100" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> --- class: center, middle <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-demand-for-education-world-population-and-projected-growth-to-2100-by-age-group?time=1950..2100" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> --- class: inverse, center, middle # 4. Forced Global Migrations --- ### Displacement in the 21st century (2000-2014) <div class="container-fluid crosstalk-bscols"> <div class="fluid-row"> <div class="col-xs-3"> <div class="container-fluid crosstalk-bscols"> <div class="fluid-row"> <div class="col-xs-12"> <div id="country" class="form-group crosstalk-input-select crosstalk-input"> <label class="control-label" for="country">Region</label> <div> <select multiple></select> <script type="application/json" data-for="country">{ "items": { "value": ["World"], "label": ["World"] }, "map": { "World": ["1", "2", "3", "4", "5", "6", "7", "8", "9", "10", "11", "12", "13", "14", "15", "16", "17", "18", "19", "20", "21"] }, "group": ["SharedData745e91aa"] }</script> </div> </div> </div> <div class="col-xs-12"> <div class="form-group crosstalk-input crosstalk-input-slider js-range-slider" id="year"> <label class="control-label" for="year">Year</label> <input data-type="double" data-min="2000" data-max="2020" data-from="2000" data-to="2020" data-step="1" data-grid="true" data-grid-num="10" data-grid-snap="false" data-prettify-separator="" data-keyboard="true" data-keyboard-step="5" data-drag-interval="true" data-data-type="number"/> <script type="application/json" data-for="year">{ "values": [2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020], "keys": ["21", "20", "19", "18", "17", "16", "15", "14", "13", "12", "11", "10", "9", "8", "7", "6", "5", "4", "3", "2", "1"], "group": ["SharedData745e91aa"] }</script> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="col-xs-9"> <div id="htmlwidget-02799861eec4ce0ea23d" style="width:600px;height:400px;" class="plotly html-widget"></div> <script type="application/json" data-for="htmlwidget-02799861eec4ce0ea23d">{"x":{"visdat":{"c6c2b43a9b216":["function () 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</div> </div> </div> --- ### Major refugee-hosting countries (2019) <div class="container-fluid crosstalk-bscols"> <div class="fluid-row"> <div class="col-xs-3"> <div class="container-fluid crosstalk-bscols"> <div class="fluid-row"> <div class="col-xs-12"> <div id="country" class="form-group crosstalk-input-select crosstalk-input"> <label class="control-label" for="country">Add a country</label> <div> <select multiple></select> <script type="application/json" data-for="country">{ "items": { "value": ["Germany", "Jordan", "Lebanon", "Pakistan", "Turkey", "Uganda"], "label": ["Germany", "Jordan", "Lebanon", "Pakistan", "Turkey", "Uganda"] }, "map": { "Germany": ["1", "2"], "Jordan": ["3", "4"], "Lebanon": ["5", "6"], "Pakistan": ["7", "8"], "Turkey": ["9", "10"], "Uganda": ["11", "12"] }, "group": ["SharedData02799861"] }</script> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="col-xs-9"> <div id="htmlwidget-43e681add57111d2b948" style="width:100%;height:400px;" class="plotly 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</div> </div> </div> --- ### Major refugee-sourcing countries (2019) <div class="container-fluid crosstalk-bscols"> <div class="fluid-row"> <div class="col-xs-3"> <div class="container-fluid crosstalk-bscols"> <div class="fluid-row"> <div class="col-xs-12"> <div id="country" class="form-group crosstalk-input-select crosstalk-input"> <label class="control-label" for="country">Add a country</label> <div> <select multiple></select> <script type="application/json" data-for="country">{ "items": { "value": ["Afghanistan", "Congo, Dem. Rep.", "Myanmar", "Somalia", "South Sudan", "Syrian Arab Republic"], "label": ["Afghanistan", "Congo, Dem. Rep.", "Myanmar", "Somalia", "South Sudan", "Syrian Arab Republic"] }, "map": { "Afghanistan": ["1", "2"], "Congo, Dem. Rep.": ["3", "4"], "Myanmar": ["5", "6"], "Somalia": ["7", "8"], "South Sudan": ["9", "10"], "Syrian Arab Republic": ["11", "12"] }, "group": ["SharedDataeec4ce0e"] }</script> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="col-xs-9"> <div id="htmlwidget-f0af5e659c656d61cfb5" style="width:100%;height:400px;" class="plotly html-widget"></div> <script type="application/json" data-for="htmlwidget-f0af5e659c656d61cfb5">{"x":{"visdat":{"c6c2b14c128ea":["function () ","plotlyVisDat"]},"cur_data":"c6c2b14c128ea","attrs":{"c6c2b14c128ea":{"x":{},"y":{},"alpha_stroke":1,"sizes":[10,100],"spans":[1,20],"type":"bar","color":{},"colors":["#800000","#767676","#FFA319","#8A9045","#155F83","#C16622"],"legendgroup":{},"showlegend":false,"inherit":true}},"layout":{"height":500,"margin":{"b":40,"l":60,"t":25,"r":10},"xaxis":{"domain":[0,1],"automargin":true,"title":"","type":"category","categoryorder":"array","categoryarray":["Afghanistan","Congo, Dem. 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The Refugee Crisis in Europe: A Case Study --- ## The Refugee Crisis in Europe <img src="images/figure2.png" width="80%" height="80%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ## The Refugee Crisis in Europe #### Migrant and refugee fatalities since 2000 <img src="images/figure3.png" width="70%" height="70%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ## The Refugee Crisis in Europe #### Number of tweets by date <img src="images/figure12.png" width="70%" height="70%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ## The Refugee Crisis in Europe #### Joy + surprise <img src="images/figure21.png" width="70%" height="70%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ### The Refugee Crisis in Europe #### Disgust + fear <img src="images/figure22.png" width="70%" height="70%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ### The Refugee Crisis in Europe #### Anger + sadness <img src="images/figure23.png" width="70%" height="70%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ### Effect of Immigration on Countries  --- class: inverse, center, middle # 6. Conclusion --- ### Conclusion - The world in 2040? - with terrorism, populism, democracies in danger... --- class: inverse, center, middle # References --- ### References - Blakely A., and Warin Th. (2012) “Choice or Mimetism in the Decision to Migrate? A European Illustration” Global Economy Journal, Vol. 12, no 2, 2009s-38 [DOI: 10.1515/1524-5861.1818] - Svaton P, and Warin Th. (2008) “European Migration: Welfare Migration or Economic Migration” Global Economy Journal, Vol. 8, no 3, Lead Article, [DOI: 10.2202/1524-5861.1360] - Bengoa Calvo, M., Warin, Th., (2020) “Regional Migration in China: A Machine Learning Approach to the Hukou System”, Internation Trade and Finance Association’s seminar series, November 19, [video]