Session 5: The environment in 2040

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# Session 5: The environment in 2040
### Thierry Warin, PhD

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> “Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's needs, but not every man's greed.”

> Mahatma Gandhi

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### Agenda

1. Introduction

2. Environment Risks

3. Science and...

4. COP26

5. IMF

6. Conclusion

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# 1. Introduction

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### Introduction

- By 2050, sub-Saharan Africa's population is projected to be 2.1 billion, a 90 per cent increase from today's levels. Such rapid population growth is unsustainable and could translate to hundreds of millions of additional food-insecure people over the next few decades.

- The three countries with the largest projected increases in population are Niger, Angola and Somalia, where the populations will increase by 161, 128 and 113 per cent, respectively.

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# 2. Environmental risks

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.panelset[
.panel[.panel-name[Temperature]

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.panel[.panel-name[Nasa]

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.panel[.panel-name[Nasa]

See here: <https://climate.nasa.gov/interactives/climate-time-machine>

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.panel[.panel-name[by country]

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# 3. Science and...

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.panelset[
.panel[.panel-name[Svante Arrhenius]

- "To a certain extent the temperature of the earth's surface, as we shall presently see, is conditioned by the properties of the atmosphere surrounding it, and particularly by the permeability of the latter for the rays of heat." (p. 46)

- "That the atmospheric envelopes limit the heat losses from the planets had been suggested about 1800 by the great French physicist Fourier. His ideas were further developed afterwards by Pouillet and Tyndall.

- Their theory has been styled the hot-house theory, because they thought that the atmosphere acted after the manner of the glass panes of hot-houses." (p. 51)

]

.panel[.panel-name[Formula]

`$$\delta F = \alpha \log \frac{C}{C_0}$$`

"If the quantity of carbonic acid [ CO2 + H2O → H2CO3 (carbonic acid) ] in the air should sink to one-half its present percentage, the temperature would fall by about 4°; a diminution to one-quarter would reduce the temperature by 8°.

On the other hand, any doubling of the percentage of carbon dioxide in the air would raise the temperature of the earth's surface by 4°; and if the carbon dioxide were increased fourfold, the temperature would rise by 8°." (p. 53)

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.panel[.panel-name[Science]

"Although the sea, by absorbing carbonic acid, acts as a regulator of huge capacity, which takes up about five-sixths of the produced carbonic acid, we yet recognize that the slight percentage of carbonic acid in the atmosphere may by the advances of industry be changed to a noticeable degree in the course of a few centuries." (p. 54)

"Since, now, warm ages have alternated with glacial periods, even after man appeared on the earth, we have to ask ourselves: Is it probable that we shall in the coming geological ages be visited by a new ice period that will drive us from our temperate countries into the hotter climates of Africa? There does not appear to be much ground for such an apprehension.

The enormous combustion of coal by our industrial establishments suffices to increase the percentage of carbon dioxide in the air to a perceptible degree." (p. 61)

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.panel[.panel-name[Opinion]

"We often hear lamentations that the coal stored up in the earth is wasted by the present generation without any thought of the future, and we are terrified by the awful destruction of life and property which has followed the volcanic eruptions of our days.

We may find a kind of consolation in the consideration that here, as in every other case, there is good mixed with the evil.

By the influence of the increasing percentage of carbonic acid in the atmosphere, we may hope to enjoy ages with more equable and better climates, especially as regards the colder regions of the earth, ages when the earth will bring forth much more abundant crops than at present, for the benefit of rapidly propagating mankind." (p. 63)
        
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# 4. COP26

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### The Economist Intelligence Unit - COP26

Making Sense of COP26: How climate policy is transforming the business environment

- Net zero carbon targets: most countries by 2050, some by 2045 (Sweden an Germinay) and some by 2060 (China).

- What can actually be achievable?

- Developed countries are already reducing emissions

- Europe has ambitious targets under "Fit for 55"

- The US wants to play a leading role: 45% cut by 2030.

- Developing countries are central to COP26 success: China accounted for 27% of global emissions in 2019, has pledged peak emissions by 2030, but net-zero emissions after 2060.

- Funding for developing countries is rising, slowly: US$00bn per year promise is critical, but has not been met: as part of any agreement on decarbonisation, since 2009 rich countries have promised US$100bn annually in aid to poor countries by 2020, a target which has not been met. UN estimates that the true need is closer to US$300bn.

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### The Economist Intelligence Unit - COP26 for Business

- Money is flowing in: global sustainable investments on the rise.

- Over US$35trn invested in five major markets in 2020.
  - US has overtaken Europe to become biggest market.
  -  Overall growth has slowed sonce 2016-2018.
  - Criteria being tightened to prevent greenwashing.

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### The Economist Intelligence Unit - COP26 for Business

- Not just countries, but companies too.

- Net-zero pledges are proliferating: BP, Repsol, PetroChina, ENI, Total, Shell, etc. See Kouloukoui, Journal of Cleaner Production
  - To avoid "green-washing", concrete measurable targets (final and interim) are vital

- Renewables will lead the recovery

- Global energy consumption will regain 2019 levels during 2022.
  - Consumption will rise at a CAGR of 1.9% in 2021-2030.
  - Solar and wind power will see by far the strongest growth, from a low base.
  - Consumption of coal will decline, but primarily in W Europe and N America

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### The Economist Intelligence Unit - COP26 for Business

- Despite pledges, climate change will continue

- Without deep emissions cuts, global warming of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C will be exceeded during the 21st century.
  - Global warming will continue to mid-century regardless of cuts.
  - Already seeing increases in extreme weather, as well as reductions in Arctic sea ice.
  - Many changes are already irreversible for centuries to millennia.

http://www.eiu.com/n/campaigns/cop26-and-the-business-environment/

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# 5. IMF

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### From the IMF

https://clicks.piie.com/e/709263/f-Fossil-Fuel-Subsidies-466004/2j478n/282800601?h=17yDCP-jF4Dg60I3gQbVZglSflmYd4JCtJ3Q4Iq8GYo

- Globally, fossil fuel subsidies were $5.9 trillion in 2020 or about 6.8 percent of GDP, and are expected to rise to 7.4 percent of GDP in 2025.

- 8 percent of the 2020 subsidy reflects undercharging for supply costs (explicit subsidies) and 92 percent for undercharging for environmental costs and foregone consumption taxes (implicit subsidies).

- Efficient fuel pricing in 2025 would reduce global carbon dioxide emissions 36 percent below baseline levels, which is in line with keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees, while raising revenues worth 3.8 percent of global GDP and preventing 0.9 million local air pollution deaths.

https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/climate-change/energy-subsidies

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# 6. Conclusion

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