Session 6: Scenarios and solutions for 2040

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# Session 6: Scenarios and solutions for 2040
### Thierry Warin, PhD

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> "Truth is mysterious, elusive, always to be conquered. Liberty is dangerous, as hard to live with as it is elating."

> Albert Camus, Nobel Prize

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### Agenda

1. Introduction

2. Experts, people and social media

3. Principles for a better world

4. Conclusion

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# 1. Introduction

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### 1. Introduction

Elements of language:

- shared global challenges

- fragmentation within communities, states and the international system

- disequilibrium

- contestation

- adaptation

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### 1. Introduction

"The verticals" of anger:

- country

- political ideology

- economic ideology

- religion

- geography

- ethnicity

= imposing on others or revenge for having been a victim

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### 1. Introduction

The verticals are useful independent variables in a model to understand the world, but are they useful to design solutions?

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# 2. Experts, people and social media

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.panel[.panel-name[Science]

### The Scientific Consensus vs. “Public Wisdom”

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change:

- Established in 1988

- Nobel Peace Prize Winner (2007)

- Concluded in its first report (1990) that CO2 emissions resulting from human activities are responsible for over half of the enhanced greenhouse effect (a view that was swiftly accepted as for fact by Shell and BP)

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.panel[.panel-name[Climate]

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.panel[.panel-name[Information]

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.panel[.panel-name[Google trends]

See here: <https://trends.google.com/trends/yis/2020/GLOBAL/>

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# 3. Principles for a better world

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### 3. Principles for a better world

Program for a leader: https://nuage.nuance-r.com/index.php/s/REMMfCSwsAmJGex

| Principles | Solutions | Operations |
|------------|-----------|------------|
|            |           |            |
|            |           |            |
|            |           |            |

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# 4. Conclusion

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### 4. Conclusion

What are the reasons for the world's troubles?

- A clash of civilizations?

- A call for revenge?

- A message to let countries be sovereign? but who is in charge of failed states? What about peoples' manipulation? Should more human rights society let go, abandon the populations leaving oppressed or even brain washed?

- Are countries the right level of analysis? Do we need a new framework to understand the future in 2040?

- Is terrorism war?

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### 4. Conclusion

The three fundamental questions:

1. What does it mean to be a human being?

2. What does it mean to love?

3. How tradition, culture, religion shape and mold our conceptions of who we are as human beings?

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### Conclusion

> Each generation doubtless feels called upon to reform the world. Mine knows that it will not reform it, but its task is perhaps even greater. It consists in preventing the world from destroying itself. Heir to a corrupt history, in which are mingled fallen revolutions, technology gone mad, dead gods, and worn-out ideologies, where mediocre powers can destroy all yet no longer know how to convince, where intelligence has debased itself to become the servant of hatred and oppression, this generation starting from its own negations has had to re-establish, both within and without, a little of that which constitutes the dignity of life and death. In a world threatened by disintegration, in which our grand inquisitors run the risk of establishing forever the kingdom of death, it knows that it should, in an insane race against the clock, restore among the nations a peace that is not servitude, reconcile anew labour and culture, and remake with all men the Ark of the Covenant.

https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/literature/1957/camus/speech/