Geopolitics: A Data Science Perspective

with an Economics Twist

Author

Affiliation

HEC Montréal and Digital, Data and Design (D^3) Institute at Harvard Business School

Published

August 20, 2025

Preface

Geopolitics, from its etymological roots, offers an intriguing lens through which the complex interactions between geography, power, and economics and politics can be understood. The term geopolitics itself is derived from two Greek words: “geo” (γῆ), meaning Earth or land, and “politiká” (πολιτικά), meaning affairs of the cities or politics. This conceptual fusion of physical geography and political affairs was first formalized in the early 20th century by political geographers like Friedrich Ratzel and later popularized by Halford Mackinder’s theories of global domination through control of geographical “pivot areas.” But long before the formalization of geopolitics, the intellectual origins can be traced to Greek philosophers who contemplated the interplay of environment, society, and power.

Greek philosophers, particularly Epicurus and his followers, spoke of ataraxy (ἀταραξία)—a state of inner peace, tranquility, and emotional equilibrium that many believed could be achieved by removing oneself from external disturbances, including the chaotic world of politics. While the notion of ataraxy paints a vision of serenity, it is largely mythical in its application to geopolitical realities. Nations, societies, and political actors are embedded in a web of global interactions where political and geographic realities shape each other in an ongoing dialectic. As Heraclitus famously declared, “War is the father of all things,” suggesting that conflict and struggle, rather than tranquility, are the driving forces of history.

In the modern context, geopolitics does not permit an ataraxic withdrawal. Global actors, both old and new, are engaged in a continuous rebalancing of power—a dynamic shaped not only by territorial control but by access to resources, technological advancements, economic strength, and even data. The big players of global politics, traditionally understood as the United States, China, and Russia, wield significant influence through a combination of military power, economic dominance, and political alliances. However, the world is witnessing the rise of new geopolitical actors—emerging powers such as India, Brazil, and the ASEAN nations. These nations are positioning themselves in a rebalanced global order, asserting regional dominance while strategically integrating into global markets and institutions.

This book proposes a framework for understanding these complex geoeconomic and geopolitical realities. Part Two of this work introduces a data-driven approach to geoeconomics, proposing that the combination of data science techniques—such as network analysis, predictive modeling, and Geographic Information Systems (GIS)—provides a more nuanced and scalable understanding of global economic and political dynamics. Traditional geopolitical analysis, while insightful, can benefit immensely from quantitative models that process massive datasets related to demographics, economics, trade, energy, and political alliances. For instance, recent research in network theory has been instrumental in visualizing the intricate web of global trade relationships and how they impact political alliances (Smith & White, 2020; Jackson, 2019). Furthermore, advancements in predictive modeling have enabled governments to assess the likelihood of conflict based on real-time indicators like resource scarcity, migration patterns, and climate change (Cederman et al., 2013; Buhaug et al., 2010).

In Part Three, we analyze some of the most pressing challenges facing the world today. Issues such as cybersecurity threats, climate-induced migrations, and the reshaping of global supply chains are examined through the lens of data. For instance, cyber warfare is now a key component of statecraft, with nation-states leveraging digital tools to gain political advantages without traditional warfare (Rid & McBurney, 2012). By mapping cyber-attack patterns, it becomes clear how geopolitical actors utilize these tools for both offense and defense, creating a new dimension of political conflict that is heavily reliant on data (Valeriano & Maness, 2015). Similarly, climate change is not merely an environmental concern but a geopolitical one, with studies linking environmental stressors to increased conflict potential, especially in fragile states (Hsiang et al., 2011; Burke et al., 2015).

Part Four then turns to the new frontiers of geopolitics. These include the race for dominance in emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) and space exploration. Data science offers invaluable insights here, as it enables nations to forecast technological trends, model the future impact of innovations, and strategize around these potential shifts. For example, AI geopolitics is fast becoming a battleground for supremacy, with data on R&D investments, patent filings, and talent mobility pointing to the increasing centrality of AI in national security strategies (Allison & Kania, 2019). Likewise, space is emerging as a new geopolitical frontier where nations are increasingly competing for dominance, using satellites not just for exploration but also for military and communications purposes (Dolman, 2002; Johnson-Freese, 2016).

Part Five will be about country analyses in the new geopolitical context.

As global power shifts and new players emerge on the world stage, the need for a data-driven framework to analyze and anticipate geopolitical changes becomes ever more crucial. This book aims to bridge the gap between traditional geopolitical theory and the transformative potential of data science, offering new ways of understanding the complexities of global politics in the 21st century.

References

Allison, G., & Kania, E. B. (2019). The Great Artificial Intelligence Race. Harvard Kennedy School.
Burke, M., Hsiang, S. M., & Miguel, E. (2015). Climate and Conflict. Annual Review of Economics, 7(1), 577-617.
Buhaug, H., Gleditsch, N. P., & Theisen, O. M. (2010). Implications of Climate Change for Armed Conflict. Social Dimensions of Climate Change: Equity and Vulnerability in a Warming World, 75-101.
Cederman, L.-E., Weidmann, N. B., & Gleditsch, K. S. (2013). Horizontal Inequalities and Ethnonationalist Civil War: A Global Comparison. American Political Science Review, 105(3), 478–495.
Dolman, E. C. (2002). Astropolitik: Classical Geopolitics in the Space Age. Routledge.
Hsiang, S. M., Burke, M., & Miguel, E. (2011). Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict. Science, 341(6151), 1235367.
Jackson, M. O. (2019). The Human Network: How Your Social Position Determines Your Power, Beliefs, and Behaviors. Pantheon.
Johnson-Freese, J. (2016). Space as a Strategic Asset. Columbia University Press.
Rid, T., & McBurney, P. (2012). Cyber-Weapons. The RUSI Journal, 157(1), 6-13.
Smith, D. A., & White, D. R. (2020). Structure and Dynamics of the Global Economy: Network Analysis of International Trade 1965–1980. International Social Science Journal, 129(2), 55-67.
Valeriano, B., & Maness, R. C. (2015). Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System. Oxford University Press.

About the Author

Thierry Warin is a Professor of International Business at HEC Montréal and a Fellow at CIRANO. His research focuses on the intersection of data science, geoeconomics geopolitics, and international business. He has published extensively on topics such as network analysis, predictive modeling, and the geopolitics of emerging technologies. Thierry is a passionate advocate for open science and the use of data-driven methodologies to address global challenges.

Citing this book

The full reference is:

BibTeX:

@book{gsdsqr,
  author = {Thierry Warin},
  year = 2024,
  title = {The New Geopolitics: A Data Science Perspective},
  publisher = {Forthcoming},
  address = {Forthcoming},
  URL = {https://warin.ca/geospatial},
  doi = {Your DOI (if available)}
}

Acknowledgements

A special thanks goes to my MSc students in International Business of the class of 2024, whose insights, enthusiasm, and questions during our sessions have greatly enriched this book. Your contributions, whether through discussion, feedback, or collaboration, have been invaluable, and I am deeply grateful for your support.

# Preface {.unnumbered} Geopolitics, from its etymological roots, offers an intriguing lens through which the complex interactions between geography, power, and economics and politics can be understood. The term geopolitics itself is derived from two Greek words: "geo" (γῆ), meaning Earth or land, and "politiká" (πολιτικά), meaning affairs of the cities or politics. This conceptual fusion of physical geography and political affairs was first formalized in the early 20th century by political geographers like Friedrich Ratzel and later popularized by Halford Mackinder’s theories of global domination through control of geographical "pivot areas." But long before the formalization of geopolitics, the intellectual origins can be traced to Greek philosophers who contemplated the interplay of environment, society, and power. Greek philosophers, particularly Epicurus and his followers, spoke of **ataraxy** (ἀταραξία)—a state of inner peace, tranquility, and emotional equilibrium that many believed could be achieved by removing oneself from external disturbances, including the chaotic world of politics. While the notion of ataraxy paints a vision of serenity, it is largely mythical in its application to geopolitical realities. Nations, societies, and political actors are embedded in a web of global interactions where political and geographic realities shape each other in an ongoing dialectic. As Heraclitus famously declared, “War is the father of all things,” suggesting that conflict and struggle, rather than tranquility, are the driving forces of history. In the modern context, geopolitics does not permit an ataraxic withdrawal. Global actors, both old and new, are engaged in a continuous rebalancing of power—a dynamic shaped not only by territorial control but by access to resources, technological advancements, economic strength, and even data. The big players of global politics, traditionally understood as the United States, China, and Russia, wield significant influence through a combination of military power, economic dominance, and political alliances. However, the world is witnessing the rise of new geopolitical actors—emerging powers such as India, Brazil, and the ASEAN nations. These nations are positioning themselves in a rebalanced global order, asserting regional dominance while strategically integrating into global markets and institutions. This book proposes a framework for understanding these complex geoeconomic and geopolitical realities. Part Two of this work introduces a data-driven approach to geoeconomics, proposing that the combination of data science techniques—such as network analysis, predictive modeling, and Geographic Information Systems (GIS)—provides a more nuanced and scalable understanding of global economic and political dynamics. Traditional geopolitical analysis, while insightful, can benefit immensely from quantitative models that process massive datasets related to demographics, economics, trade, energy, and political alliances. For instance, recent research in **network theory** has been instrumental in visualizing the intricate web of global trade relationships and how they impact political alliances (Smith & White, 2020; Jackson, 2019). Furthermore, advancements in **predictive modeling** have enabled governments to assess the likelihood of conflict based on real-time indicators like resource scarcity, migration patterns, and climate change (Cederman et al., 2013; Buhaug et al., 2010). In Part Three, we analyze some of the most pressing challenges facing the world today. Issues such as cybersecurity threats, climate-induced migrations, and the reshaping of global supply chains are examined through the lens of data. For instance, **cyber warfare** is now a key component of statecraft, with nation-states leveraging digital tools to gain political advantages without traditional warfare (Rid & McBurney, 2012). By mapping cyber-attack patterns, it becomes clear how geopolitical actors utilize these tools for both offense and defense, creating a new dimension of political conflict that is heavily reliant on data (Valeriano & Maness, 2015). Similarly, climate change is not merely an environmental concern but a geopolitical one, with studies linking environmental stressors to increased conflict potential, especially in fragile states (Hsiang et al., 2011; Burke et al., 2015). Part Four then turns to the new frontiers of geopolitics. These include the race for dominance in emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) and space exploration. Data science offers invaluable insights here, as it enables nations to forecast technological trends, model the future impact of innovations, and strategize around these potential shifts. For example, **AI geopolitics** is fast becoming a battleground for supremacy, with data on R&D investments, patent filings, and talent mobility pointing to the increasing centrality of AI in national security strategies (Allison & Kania, 2019). Likewise, space is emerging as a new geopolitical frontier where nations are increasingly competing for dominance, using satellites not just for exploration but also for military and communications purposes (Dolman, 2002; Johnson-Freese, 2016). Part Five will be about country analyses in the new geopolitical context. As global power shifts and new players emerge on the world stage, the need for a data-driven framework to analyze and anticipate geopolitical changes becomes ever more crucial. This book aims to bridge the gap between traditional geopolitical theory and the transformative potential of data science, offering new ways of understanding the complexities of global politics in the 21st century. ### References - Allison, G., & Kania, E. B. (2019). *The Great Artificial Intelligence Race*. Harvard Kennedy School. - Burke, M., Hsiang, S. M., & Miguel, E. (2015). Climate and Conflict. *Annual Review of Economics, 7*(1), 577-617. - Buhaug, H., Gleditsch, N. P., & Theisen, O. M. (2010). Implications of Climate Change for Armed Conflict. *Social Dimensions of Climate Change: Equity and Vulnerability in a Warming World*, 75-101. - Cederman, L.-E., Weidmann, N. B., & Gleditsch, K. S. (2013). Horizontal Inequalities and Ethnonationalist Civil War: A Global Comparison. *American Political Science Review, 105*(3), 478–495. - Dolman, E. C. (2002). *Astropolitik: Classical Geopolitics in the Space Age*. Routledge. - Hsiang, S. M., Burke, M., & Miguel, E. (2011). Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict. *Science, 341*(6151), 1235367. - Jackson, M. O. (2019). *The Human Network: How Your Social Position Determines Your Power, Beliefs, and Behaviors*. Pantheon. - Johnson-Freese, J. (2016). *Space as a Strategic Asset*. Columbia University Press. - Rid, T., & McBurney, P. (2012). Cyber-Weapons. *The RUSI Journal, 157*(1), 6-13. - Smith, D. A., & White, D. R. (2020). Structure and Dynamics of the Global Economy: Network Analysis of International Trade 1965–1980. *International Social Science Journal, 129*(2), 55-67. - Valeriano, B., & Maness, R. C. (2015). *Cyber War versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System*. Oxford University Press. ### About the Author Thierry Warin is a Professor of International Business at HEC Montréal and a Fellow at CIRANO. His research focuses on the intersection of data science, geoeconomics geopolitics, and international business. He has published extensively on topics such as network analysis, predictive modeling, and the geopolitics of emerging technologies. Thierry is a passionate advocate for open science and the use of data-driven methodologies to address global challenges. ::: {.content-visible when-format="html"} ## Citing this book The full reference is: BibTeX: ``` @book{gsdsqr, author = {Thierry Warin}, year = 2024, title = {The New Geopolitics: A Data Science Perspective}, publisher = {Forthcoming}, address = {Forthcoming}, URL = {https://warin.ca/geospatial}, doi = {Your DOI (if available)} } ``` ::: ## Acknowledgements {-} A special thanks goes to my MSc students in International Business of the class of 2024, whose insights, enthusiasm, and questions during our sessions have greatly enriched this book. Your contributions, whether through discussion, feedback, or collaboration, have been invaluable, and I am deeply grateful for your support.