Ukraine - The day the world changed, 24 Feb 2022

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# Ukraine - The day the world changed, 24 Feb 2022
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> 24 Feb 2022

![](https://miro.medium.com/max/869/1*irEkQgKgehdq_4fsX6CHfA.png)

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## Objectives

- What if I am a company?

- Do I do business in Ukraine and Russia?
  
  - Do I have subsidiaries in Ukraine and Russia?
  
  - Do I have suppliers from Ukraine and Russia?
  
  - What about global inflation?
  
  - What about interest rates?
  
  - What about their impacts on exchange rates?
  
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# Outline

1. Introduction

2. The Russian Economy launched into War Times

3. Economic, Political and Military Sanctions

4. Global Impacts

5. Conclusion

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# 1. Introduction

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![](https://www.profgalloway.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/image-22.png)

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# 2. The Russian Economy in War Times

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### Life expectancy at birth, total (years) : Russian Federation

![](./figures_ukraine/plot1.png)

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### GDP growth (annual %) : Russian Federation

![](./figures_ukraine/plot2.png)

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![](https://www.profgalloway.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/image-20.png)

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![](https://www.profgalloway.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/image-23.png)

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# 3. Economic Sanctions

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![](https://www.profgalloway.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/image-18.png)

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![](https://www.profgalloway.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/yachtsvsukr-defense.png)

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![](https://miro.medium.com/max/1400/0*G3F82zAQrHMfwFPO.png)

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![](https://miro.medium.com/max/1400/0*d3DxlHT3PmrHkPTt.png)

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![](https://miro.medium.com/max/1400/0*LFDww0IcWsI0x08p.png)

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![](https://www.profgalloway.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/nmnm-3-3-2022-2-3.gif)

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### Political Sanctions

- Oil and Gas:

- Germany
    - Italy
    - Spain

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![](https://miro.medium.com/max/1038/1*JoGPwfUlu1GU2CM23nGaGw.png)

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### Military Sanctions

- NATO

- OSCE: [Organisation pour la sécurité et la coopération en Europe](https://www.osce.org/fr/)

- [International Criminal Court](https://www.icc-cpi.int/fr)

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# 4. Global Impacts

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![](ukraine_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-1-1.png)

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![](ukraine_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-2-1.png)

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![](ukraine_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-3-1.png)

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![](ukraine_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-4-1.png)

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![](https://miro.medium.com/max/761/1*gJwcx7lgG9PYgxRzV1W0aw.png)

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![](https://miro.medium.com/max/1050/1*jV0k-0xlAqTu852wZ2v6tA.png)

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![](./oil_ukraine.png)

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### The implications are global and local

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### Global and Local

- Unless the invasion of Ukraine is stopped quickly, and unless Vladimir Putin is deposed by his own people, the steps now taken and those to come might have a catastrophic effect on the globe.

- The ECB expects inflation to reach 4.8 percent this quarter, then continue over 3 percent until the third quarter, before falling to 2.1 percent in the fourth.

- In spite of a record inflation rate, the European Central Bank pledged to withdraw monetary stimulus gradually. The spikes after the Ukraine crisis are harsh.

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> Global supply chain

[![](./figures_ukraine/plot5.png)](https://www.thetruesize.com/#?borders=1~!MTczNjIzNDQ.NDIxNTcwNw*MzYwMDAwMDA(MA~!UA*MTE2NTQ.MjYwNjk0NDU)Mw)

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# 5. Conclusion

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### Global and Local

- This is not a civil war.

- We should know by now that targeting the people of the nations we oppose not only makes us tyrants, but that the assumption that people will change governments has historically proven ineffective and strengthened opposition.

- Closing restaurants and bars makes no sense.

- That Europe is Russia's neighbour will not alter.

- We don't need to demolish all bridges to punish Russia. Focus on the country's corrupt and criminal leadership.

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### Global and Local

- The immigration situation worsens daily, and certain nations require quick help.

- One thing is certain: Ukrainians want to return home as quickly as possible, not settle.

- The surrounding and other nations' warm welcome is inspiring.

- It also teaches us that migrations are a permanent element of our perilous planet.

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## Conclusion

> "NATO must prepare itself to fight against Russia." - Georges Ugeux

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## Conclusion

- What if I am a company?

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[![](./figures_ukraine/plot3.png)](https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-12.0/centery:25.0/zoom:4)

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[![](./figures_ukraine/plot4.png)](https://www.thetruesize.com/#?borders=1~!MTczNjIzNDQ.NDIxNTcwNw*MzYwMDAwMDA(MA~!UA*MTE2NTQ.MjYwNjk0NDU)Mw)

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## Sources

- Scott Galloway https://www.profgalloway.com/

- Warin, Thierry (2021), “Global Macroeconomic Data”, Mondo.International, available at: www.mondo.international/mondo-en, doi: 10.6084/m9.figshare.8018735.v1