Séance 3: Les Nations dans l’environnement mondial

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.title[
# Séance 3: Les Nations dans l’environnement mondial
]
.author[
### Th. Warin, PhD
]

---

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# Objectifs

- Développer une compréhension des mythes et des réalités de la mondialisation basée sur les données

- Développer un cadre agile pour analyser les risques globaux

> Benjamin Franklin (1706–1790) a écrit: “No nation was ever ruined by trade.”

---

## Agenda

1. Avantage comparatif des nations

2. Avantage compétitif des nations

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# Introduction

---

### Introduction

- Définitions : pays ou Nation ?

> Voir Maurice Duverger.

- Définitions : nationalisme, patriotisme, populisme, ...

---

### Introduction

Rosenvallon (2020) sur le populisme :

- une conception du peuple (le Peuple-Un) ;

- une théorie de la démocratie (préférence pour la démocratie directe, rejet des corps intermédiaires et domestication des institutions non élues, expression spontanée de la volonté générale) ;

- une politique et une philosophie de l'économie (national-protectionnisme dans une vision souverainiste attentive à la sécurité de la population) ;

- un régime de passions et d'émotions (sentiment d'abandon, d'invisibilité, besoin d'un monde plus lisible rempli d'histoires complotistes, envie d'agir par éviction)

---
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# Hans Rosling

> [Hans Rosling Ted talk, 2006](https://www.gapminder.org/videos/hans-rosling-ted-2006-debunking-myths-about-the-third-world/)

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# 1. Avantage comparatif des nations

---

##  Commerce (% du PIB)

---

## 1. Avantage comparatif des nations

* Adam Smith a soutenu dans la richesse des nations (1776) que :

* Certains pays peuvent produire plus d'un produit avec la même quantité d'intrants que d'autres pays
  
   * Un pays ne devrait produire que les biens là où il est le plus efficace et échanger les biens là où il n'est pas efficace
  
* Suppose qu'il existe un équilibre absolu entre les nations

---

### 1. Avantage comparatif des nations

En 1817, David Ricardo, homme d'affaires, économiste et membre du Parlement britannique, écrivit un traité intitulé *Sur les principes de l'économie politique et de la fiscalité*.

- Dans ce traité, Ricardo a fait valoir que la spécialisation et le libre-échange profitent à tous les partenaires commerciaux, même ceux qui peuvent être relativement inefficaces. Pour voir ce qu'il voulait dire, nous devons être capables de distinguer entre **l'avantage absolu et l'avantage comparatif**.

- Un pays a un **avantage absolu** dans la production d'un bien par rapport à un autre pays s'il utilise moins de ressources pour produire ce bien.

---

.panelset[
.panel[.panel-name[Exemple 1]

L'Arabie saoudite peut produire du pétrole avec moins de ressources, tandis que les États-Unis peuvent produire du maïs avec moins de ressources.

Le tableau 1 illustre les avantages des deux pays, exprimés en nombre d'heures nécessaires pour produire une unité de chaque bien.

| Pays | Pétrole (heures par baril) | Maïs (heures par boisseau) |
|---------|-------------------|-------------------| ----------|
| Arabie Saoudite | 1 | 4 |
| États-Unis | 2 | 1 |

Tableau 1. Combien d'heures faut-il pour produire de l'huile et du maïs

- L'Arabie saoudite a un avantage absolu dans la production de pétrole car il ne faut qu'une heure pour produire un baril de pétrole contre deux heures aux États-Unis.

- Les États-Unis ont un avantage absolu dans la production de maïs.

]
.panel[.panel-name[Ex 2]

Pour simplifier, disons que l'Arabie saoudite et les États-Unis comptent chacun 100 heures de travail (voir tableau 2).

- Nous illustrons ce que chaque pays est capable de produire par lui-même à l'aide d'un graphique **frontière des possibilités de production** (PPF).

| Pays | Production de pétrole utilisant 100 heures de travail (barils) | Production de maïs utilisant 100 heures de travail (boisseaux) |
|---------|-------------------|-------------------| ----------|
| Arabie Saoudite | 100 | ou 25 |
| États-Unis | 50 | ou 100 |

Tableau 2. Possibilités de production avant commercialisation

]
.panel[.panel-name[Ex 3]

![](https://opentextbc.ca/principlesofeconomics/wp-content/uploads/sites/149/2016/04/CNX_Econ_C33_010.jpg)

| Pays | Production de pétrole (barils) | Production de maïs (boisseaux) |
|---------|-------------------|-------------------| ----------|
| Arabie Saoudite | 60 | 10 |
| États-Unis | 20 | 60 |
| Production mondiale totale | 80 | 70 |

Tableau 3. Production avant commercialisation

]
.panel[.panel-name[Ex 4]

- La **pente de la frontière des possibilités de production** illustre le coût d'opportunité de la production de pétrole en termes de maïs.

- En utilisant toutes leurs ressources, les États-Unis peuvent produire 50 barils de pétrole ou 100 boisseaux de maïs.

- Ainsi, le coût d'opportunité d'un baril de pétrole est de deux boisseaux de maïs - ou la pente est de 1/2. Ainsi, dans le graphique de la frontière des possibilités de production aux États-Unis, chaque augmentation de la production de pétrole d'un baril implique une diminution de deux boisseaux de maïs.

- L'Arabie saoudite peut produire 100 barils de pétrole ou 25 boisseaux de maïs. Le coût d'opportunité de la production d'un baril de pétrole correspond à la perte d'un quart de boisseau de maïs que les travailleurs saoudiens auraient pu produire autrement. En matière de maïs, notez que l'Arabie Saoudite cède le moins pour produire un baril de pétrole.

]
.panel[.panel-name[Ex 5]

| Pays | Coût d'opportunité d'une unité de pétrole en termes de maïs | Coût d'opportunité d'une unité de maïs en termes d'huile |
|---------|-------------------|-------------------| ----------|
| Arabie Saoudite | 1/4 | 4 |
| États-Unis | 2 | 1/1 |

Tableau 4. Coût d'opportunité et avantage comparatif

]
.panel[.panel-name[Ex 6]

Rappelons à nouveau que l'avantage comparatif était défini comme le coût d'opportunité de la production de biens.

- Puisque l'Arabie saoudite renonce le moins pour produire un baril de pétrole, (1/4 < 2 dans le tableau 3) elle a un avantage comparatif dans la production de pétrole.

- Les États-Unis cèdent le moins pour produire un boisseau de maïs, ils ont donc un avantage comparatif dans la production de maïs.

]
.panel[.panel-name[Ex 7]

Rappelons que David Ricardo a fait valoir que si chaque pays se spécialise dans son avantage comparatif, il bénéficiera du commerce et la production mondiale totale augmentera.

> Comment montrer les gains du commerce grâce à l'avantage comparatif et à la spécialisation ?

Le tableau 4 montre la production en supposant que chaque pays se spécialise dans son avantage comparatif et ne produit aucun autre bien.

- C'est une spécialisation à 100%. La spécialisation entraîne une augmentation de la production mondiale totale.

| Pays | Quantité produite après spécialisation à 100 % — Pétrole (barils) | Quantité produite après spécialisation à 100 % — Maïs (boisseaux) |
|---------|-------------------|-------------------| ----------|
| Arabie Saoudite | 100 | 0 |
| États-Unis | 0 | 100 |
| Production mondiale totale | 100 | 100 |

Tableau 5. Comment la spécialisation étend la production

]
]

---
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## Attendez!

> Cela semble un peu réducteur, peut-on capter d'autres dynamiques sociales ? Tels que les capitaux internationaux, la technologie, les flux migratoires, etc.

---

### Ressources naturelles : pas une garantie de richesse

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</div>
</div>

L'Afrique est un exportateur net de ressources naturelles

---
class: inverse, center, middle

## Le théorème de Heckscher-Ohlin est le suivant :

> Un pays exportera le bien qui nécessite une utilisation relativement plus intensive du facteur de production relativement abondant, et importera le bien qui nécessite une utilisation relativement plus intensive du facteur de production relativement rare.

---

.panelset[
.panel[.panel-name[Étape 1]

Représentons d'abord l'économie domestique du pays en autarcie.

Imaginons que ce pays puisse produire deux biens `$X$` et `$Y$` à des prix respectifs de `$Px$` et `$Py$`.

Nous pouvons commencer par représenter deux parties importantes :

- la frontière des possibilités de production ;

- la frontière des possibilités de consommation, dont la pente est simplement le rapport des prix relatifs

`\begin{equation*}
\frac{Px}{Py}
\end{equation*}`

]

.panel[.panel-name[E2]

.pull-left[

A l'optimum, le point d'équilibre est représenté par le point E, qui correspond à la meilleure allocation entre les ressources factorielles et la technologie disponible dans le pays pour produire `$X$` et `$Y$`.

Un autre élément important est le choix du consommateur. La courbe d'indifférence capturant l'utilité des consommateurs domestiques à consommer des paniers de biens `$X$` et `$Y$` sera tracée.

]

.pull-right[

<div class="figure">
<img src="./figures/fig10.1.png" alt="Équilibre de production en autarcie." width="100%" />
<p class="caption">Équilibre de production en autarcie.</p>
</div>

]

.panel[.panel-name[E3]

.pull-left[

Le graphique montre la combinaison de la technologie (frontière des opportunités de production), du choix disponible (frontière des opportunités de consommation) et du choix du consommateur (courbe d'indifférence).

L'optimum en autarcie est évidemment au point E ; il n'y a pas d'autre possibilité à moins d'introduire l'hypothèse de gaspillage.

]

.pull-right[

<div class="figure">
<img src="./figures/fig10.2.png" alt="Équilibre général en autarcie." width="100%" />
<p class="caption">Équilibre général en autarcie.</p>
</div>

]

.panel[.panel-name[E4]

Que se passe-t-il lorsqu'une économie nationale s'ouvre au commerce international ? Pour répondre à cette question, nous devons réfléchir à la variable qui sera affectée.

- Cette variable est en fait le rapport des prix relatifs. Avec le commerce international, le bien pour lequel l'économie est compétitive sera désormais demandé à la fois par l'économie nationale et l'économie étrangère.

- Cela contribuera à l'augmentation du prix de ce bien.

]

.panel[.panel-name[E5]

Supposons que l'économie nationale ait un avantage comparatif dans la production du bien X$.

- Le prix du produit augmentera pour être plus élevé dans l'économie nationale (dommage aux clients nationaux), mais inférieur au prix dans le pays étranger (super pour les consommateurs étrangers).

- Cela crée une nouvelle frontière des possibilités de consommation représentée par `$\left( \frac{Px}{Py} \right)_2$` . En fin de compte, même les consommateurs nationaux y gagnent. Ceci est représenté par la courbe d'indifférence `$CI_2$` qui est supérieure à la courbe d'indifférence initiale `$CI_1$`. Ce gain est représenté par le triangle des gains commerciaux.

]

.panel[.panel-name[E6]

<div class="figure">
<img src="./figures/fig10.3.png" alt="Gains du commerce pour le pays intérieur." width="80%" />
<p class="caption">Gains du commerce pour le pays intérieur.</p>
</div>

]

.panel[.panel-name[E7]

La figure suivante montre les graphiques des deux pays : a) le pays étranger et b) le pays domestique.

<div class="figure">
<img src="./figures/fig10.4.png" alt="Gains du commerce : a) pour le pays étranger; b) pour le pays intérieur." width="100%" />
<p class="caption">Gains du commerce : a) pour le pays étranger; b) pour le pays intérieur.</p>
</div>

]

.panel[.panel-name[E8]

<div class="figure">
<img src="./figures/fig10.5.png" alt="Gains pour des pays ayant des demandes identiques : a) autarcie; b) commerce." width="100%" />
<p class="caption">Gains pour des pays ayant des demandes identiques : a) autarcie; b) commerce.</p>
</div>

]

---
class: inverse, center, middle

## Améliorations de H-O (1/4): Samuelson

---

.panelset[
.panel[.panel-name[Samuelson 1]

**Égalisation des prix des facteurs : théorème de Samuelson**

Soit le pays `$I$` le pays `$I$` où le prix du capital `$(r)$` est relativement inférieur au prix du travail `$(w)$`, et inversement dans le pays `$II$`.

> Les deux pays produisent des textiles et des services financiers. Le textile demande plus de travail, et inversement les services financiers qui demandent plus de capital. Le pays `$I$` se spécialisera un peu plus dans la production de services financiers et inversement pour le pays `$II$` qui produira du textile. Les produits finis seront vendus dans chaque pays à des prix `$P_{textile}$`, `$P_{finance}$`.

`\begin{equation}
\frac{W_{II}}{r_{II}} 
  {<} 
\frac{W_{I}}{r_{I}}
\end{equation}`

Avec l'ouverture des échanges, les prix relatifs dans les pays `$I$` et `$II$` sont confrontés aux prix relatifs internationaux :

`\begin{equation}
\frac{P_{finance}^I}{P_{textile}^I} 
  {<} 
\frac{P_{finance}^{int}}{P_{textile}^{int}}
  {<} 
\frac{P_{finance}^{II}}{P_{textile}^{II}}
\end{equation}`

]

.panel[.panel-name[S2]

La conséquence de l'ouverture au commerce international sera une spécialisation plus forte du pays I dans la production du bien pour lequel il dispose d'une ressource relativement plus abondante.

Dans ce cas, le pays I produira plus de services financiers et tirera un peu plus de son facteur capital. La conséquence est une augmentation du prix du facteur capital et l'inverse dans le pays II, d'où :

`\begin{equation}
\frac {\partial W_I}{\partial r_I}
  {<} 0 \text{ et }
\frac {\partial W_{II}}{\partial r_{II}}
  {>} 0
\end{equation}`

leading to:

`\begin{equation}
\frac{W_{II}}{r_{II}} 
  = 
\frac{W_{int}}{r_{int}}
  =
\frac{W_{I}}{r_{I}}
\end{equation}`

]

.panel[.panel-name[S3]

.pull-left[

Théorème de Samuelson :

> A l'équilibre, avec les deux pays confrontés aux mêmes prix relatifs des produits (rapport de prix), utilisant la même technologie, alors les coûts relatifs de production vont s'égaliser. La seule justification est que les prix des facteurs sont égalisés.

]

.pull-right[

<div class="figure">
<img src="./figures/fig10.6.png" alt="Égalisation du prix des facteurs." width="100%" />
<p class="caption">Égalisation du prix des facteurs.</p>
</div>

]
]
]

---
class: inverse, center, middle

## Améliorations de H-O (2/4): Stolper-Samuelson

---

## Stolper-Samuleson

Le théorème met l'accent sur l'aspect revenu et ajoute cette dimension à l'analyse du commerce international.

Quel est l'effet d'une utilisation plus intensive du facteur travail sur les salaires réels des deux facteurs ?

Le théorème de Stolper-Samuelson est le suivant :

> En situation de plein emploi avant et après l'ouverture des échanges internationaux, la hausse du prix du facteur abondant et la baisse du prix du facteur rare conduisent les propriétaires du facteur abondant à voir leurs revenus augmenter et les propriétaires du facteur rare voyant leurs revenus diminuer.

---
class: inverse, center, middle

## Améliorations de H-O (3/4): Linder

---

## Linder

- La théorie de Linder

- des échanges apparaîtront pour des biens ayant des fonctions de demande similaires ;

- les échanges internationaux de biens manufacturés se feront entre pays ayant des fonctions de demande (revenu par tête) similaires.

---
class: inverse, center, middle

## Améliorations de H-O (4/4): Leamer

---

## Leamer

.panelset[
.panel[.panel-name[1]

Selon Leamer (2012), le théorème de Heckscher-Ohlin soulève une question fondamentale : "Que devraient faire les gouvernements pour capter les plus grands gains du commerce, également pour s'assurer que les gains du commerce sont largement partagés, et que les plus grands bénéfices reviennent au plus grand nombre méritant?"

Toujours selon Leamer (2012), le modèle Heckscher-Ohlin présenté ci-dessus comporte quatre idées principales sur lesquelles construire la politique publique :

1. les barrières commerciales peuvent augmenter les rendements réels de facteurs rares dans des circonstances particulières.

2. L'investissement dans l'éducation et les infrastructures peut servir de base à des améliorations de produits qui peuvent transformer les pays en développement à bas salaires en partenaires plutôt qu'en concurrents, permettant des gains du commerce de tous les facteurs de production.

]
.panel[.panel-name[2]

3. le commerce lisse les effets de l'accumulation du capital et de la croissance du travail sur les produits marginaux du capital et du travail.
    
    1. Un pays qui produit un mélange diversifié de biens échangeables peut absorber des immigrants avec un impact minimal sur les salaires des autochtones.
   
    2. un pays qui produit un mélange diversifié de biens échangeables peut absorber du capital avec un impact minimal sur le rendement du capital. Ainsi, le ralentissement de la croissance qui provient traditionnellement d'une baisse de la productivité marginale du capital est inexistant, ou du moins moins sévère pour une petite économie ouverte.
   
4. Le retard technologique réduit globalement le PIB par travailleur, mais dans des circonstances particulières, la convergence technologique a des gagnants et des perdants.

]
]

---
class: inverse, center, middle

# 2. Avantage concurrentiel des nations

---
class: inverse, center, middle

## Attendez!

> Qu'est-ce que Porter a apporté à cette analyse ?

---

.panelset[
.panel[.panel-name[CAN 1]

## Le diamant

1. Les entreprises qui ont atteint le leadership international emploient des stratégies qui diffèrent à tous égards, mais le chemin est fondamentalement le même

2. L'avantage concurrentiel est obtenu grâce à des actes d'innovation (nouvelles technologies et nouvelles façons de faire)

* L'innovation est banale et progressive, dépendant davantage d'une accumulation de petites idées que d'une percée technologique majeure
  
3. La concurrence est dynamique et évolutive, et est au cœur de l'innovation, tout comme l'adversité : *la peur de perdre s'avère souvent plus puissante que l'espoir de gain*

**Pour Porter, une devise faible n'est pas une source d'avantage concurrentiel**

]
.panel[.panel-name[CAN 2]

* Danemark : agromachinerie, produits laitiers, additifs alimentaires, énergies renouvelables

* Allemagne : automobiles, chimie, instruments optiques, machines-outils

* Italie : carreaux de céramique, chaussures

* Japon : automobiles, construction navale, électronique, robotique, semi-conducteurs

* France : aéronautique, transport terrestre, agroalimentaire, traitement des eaux, gestion des déchets, tourisme

* Corée du Sud : acier, construction navale, automobiles, semi-conducteurs, électronique

* Suède : équipement de contrôle environnemental, poids lourds

* Royaume-Uni : produits pharmaceutiques, assurances/services financiers

* États-Unis : divertissement, aérospatial, chimie, pharmacie, ingénierie/construction

]
.panel[.panel-name[CAN 3]

Définit l'industrie d'une nation comme prospère à l'échelle internationale si elle *"possède un avantage concurrentiel par rapport aux meilleurs concurrents mondiaux"*

Principales conclusions

* Les différences dans les valeurs nationales, la culture, les structures économiques, les institutions et les histoires contribuent toutes au succès compétitif

* Les nations réussissent dans des industries particulières parce que leur environnement d'origine est le plus dynamique et le plus stimulant

]
]

---

.panelset[
.panel[.panel-name[Diamond 1]

### Diamant de l'avantage national de Porter

]
.panel[.panel-name[Diamond 2]

### Conditions factorielles

Disponibilité des ressources et des compétences nécessaires pour un avantage concurrentiel (par exemple, main-d'œuvre qualifiée ou infrastructure) :

* Non hérité mais créé

* Le taux et l'efficacité avec lesquels une nation crée, améliore et déploie les facteurs sont plus importants que le volume

* Un facteur doit être hautement spécialisé dans les besoins d'une industrie pour soutenir l'avantage concurrentiel

* Des facteurs hautement spécialisés proviennent d'instituts de classe mondiale qui les créent puis les mettent à niveau

* Des désavantages sélectifs peuvent conduire à l'innovation et à la mise à niveau (par exemple, coût élevé du terrain, pénurie de main-d'œuvre ou manque de matières premières locales)

* Les entreprises de signal et les entreprises innovent avant leurs rivaux
  
   * Besoin de conditions favorables dans d'autres aspects du diamant
  
   * Besoin d'engagement de l'entreprise

]
.panel[.panel-name[Diamond 3]

### Conditions de la demande

Marché domestique - informations qui façonnent les opportunités que les entreprises perçoivent et les directions dans lesquelles elles déploient leurs ressources et leurs compétences :

* Donne aux entreprises une image claire et précoce des besoins des acheteurs émergents

* Acheteurs exigeants

* Caractère plus important que la taille :

* Segment de marché plus large ou plus visible que dans les pays étrangers
  
   * Les acheteurs sont plus sophistiqués
  
   * Les besoins des acheteurs anticipent voire façonnent ceux des autres nations

]
.panel[.panel-name[Diamond 4]

### Industries connexes et de soutien

Compétitivité internationale des industries fournisseurs et autres industries connexes

* Les industries compétitives à l'échelle internationale peuvent fournir des méthodes de production compétitives et déclencher l'innovation et la modernisation

]
.panel[.panel-name[Diamond 5]

### Stratégie, structure et rivalité de l'entreprise

Conditions de création, d'organisation et de gestion des entreprises et nature des rivalités nationales

* La rivalité nationale stimule la concurrence, créant une pression sur les entreprises pour qu'elles innovent et s'améliorent

]
.panel[.panel-name[Diamond 6]

### Rôle du gouvernement

* Créer les conditions qui permettront aux entreprises de lutter

* Taxation/crédits pour l'innovation (pas de subventions)
  
   * Règlement
  
   * Orientation à long terme
  
]
]

---
class: inverse, center, middle

## Attendez!

> Le rôle de la chance ?

---

## Les 8 commandements de Porter pour les nations

1. Focus sur la création de facteurs spécialisés

2. Éviter d'intervenir sur les marchés des facteurs et des devises

3. Appliquer des normes strictes en matière de produits, de sécurité et d'environnement

4. Limiter fortement la coopération directe entre les rivaux de l'industrie

5. Promouvoir des objectifs qui mènent à un investissement soutenu

6. Déréglementer la concurrence

7. Appliquer des politiques antitrust nationales solides

8. Rejeter le commerce géré

---

## L'agenda de l'entreprise

1. Créer des pressions pour l'innovation

2. Recherchez les concurrents les plus compétents comme facteurs de motivation

3. Mettre en place des systèmes d'alerte précoce

4. Améliorer le diamant national

5. Bienvenue à la rivalité nationale

6. Mondialiser pour exploiter des avantages sélectifs dans d'autres pays

7. N'utilisez les alliances que de manière sélective

8. Localisez la base d'attache pour soutenir l'avantage concurrentiel

---
class: inverse, center, middle

# Conclusion

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.panelset[
.panel[.panel-name[1]

Bref:

> Mondialisation = biens + services + personnes + connaissances

- Samuelson

- Heschscher-Ohlin

- Stolper-Samuelson

- La théorie de Linder

]
.panel[.panel-name[2]

## Facteurs à l'origine de l'avantage comparatif

* Différences technologiques

* Différences dans la disponibilité des facteurs de production (travail ou finance) (également appelée dotation factorielle)

En résumé : les pays exporteront des produits qui utilisent leurs facteurs de production abondants et bon marché et importeront des produits qui utilisent les facteurs rares des pays

Le commerce est un jeu à somme positive (en théorie) et il est le résultat de différences de dotations et de technologies (en théorie encore)

En pratique, il y a des coûts de transition à prendre en charge.

]
]