• Foundations of Quantitative Analysis for International Business with R
  • Motivation
  • Introduction {#intro}
  • 1 Session 1
  • 2 Globalization and its implications
    • 2.1 Globalization
      • 2.1.1 True or False
      • 2.1.2 Globalization and the World
      • 2.1.3 Globalization and Canada
      • 2.1.4 Globalization and Regions
      • 2.1.5 Not a New Phenomenon
      • 2.1.6 What is Different Today?
      • 2.1.7 Developments in Sea Transportation
      • 2.1.8 Developments in Air Transportation
      • 2.1.9 Developments in Telecommunications
      • 2.1.10 Transportation and Communication Costs
      • 2.1.11 The Internet Revolution
      • 2.1.12 What is Different Today ?
      • 2.1.13 Case in Point: International Capital Investments
      • 2.1.14 New Developments (but Also New Issues) in Governance
      • 2.1.15 Tariff Barriers Worldwide
      • 2.1.16 Trade Barriers: Free Trade Agreements
      • 2.1.17 Free Trade Agreements
    • 2.2 Measures and Impacts
      • 2.2.1 Measuring Globalization
      • 2.2.2 KOF Index: Globalization Worldwide
      • 2.2.3 Measuring Globalization: A Country Perspective
      • 2.2.4 Who’s In The Game and Who’s Out?
      • 2.2.5 Who’s in the Game and Who’s Out?
      • 2.2.6 Who Has Won? Who Has Lost?
    • 2.3 Trends and Challenges
      • 2.3.1 Trends
      • 2.3.2 Intangible vs. Tangible Goods
    • 2.4 Data Challenge
      • 2.4.1 Political Risk
  • 3 Nations in the Global Environment
    • 3.1 Comparative Advantage of Nations
      • 3.1.1 Globalization and the World
      • 3.1.2 Trade and Nations
      • 3.1.3 Theory of Absolute Advantage
      • 3.1.4 Theory of Comparative Advantage
      • 3.1.5 Factors behind Comparative Advantage
      • 3.1.6 Natural Ressources: Not a Guarantee of Wealth
      • 3.1.7 Labor Cost: Another Source of Comparative Advantage
      • 3.1.8 Labor Cost and Productivity
      • 3.1.9 The Global Competitiveness Index in 2019
      • 3.1.10 Porter’s Premises
    • 3.2 Competitive Advantage of Nations
      • 3.2.1 Methods and Key Findings
      • 3.2.2 Porter’s Diamond of National Advantage
      • 3.2.3 Porter’s 8 Commandments for Nations
      • 3.2.4 The Company Agenda
      • 3.2.5 Griffiths and Zammuto’s (2005)
      • 3.2.6 Four Institutional Arrangements
    • 3.3 East of Africa (and West of China)
      • 3.3.1 “East of Africa (and West of China): Chinese Business in Africa”
    • 3.4 New Challenges
      • 3.4.1 New Challenges for Countries
      • 3.4.2 Demographic Changes
      • 3.4.3 Global Value Chains
      • 3.4.4 Technological advances and boundaries
      • 3.4.5 Urban centers versus countries
      • 3.4.6 Urban centers versus countries
    • 3.5 Data Challenge
      • 3.5.1 Political Risk
  • 4 International Trade - Institutions and Regulations
    • 4.1 Agenda
    • 4.2 Why Do Nations Join International Organizations?
    • 4.3 Trade Agreements, Int. Org., and the United States
    • 4.4 Idea behind GATT/WTO, IMF, and IBRD/World Bank
    • 4.5 Tariff Liberalization Since 1947: RTAs, MTNs and Unilateralism
    • 4.6 Evolution of Trade and Tariffs in the US Since 1890
    • 4.7 More Recently, and By Region
    • 4.8 Changes in Average Tariff and Annual GDP Growth
    • 4.9 Average Tariffs by Type of Economy
    • 4.10 Non Tariff Barriers
    • 4.11 Unilateral Tariff Cutting by Emerging Markets
    • 4.12 Still: (Trade-Related) Conflicts Remain…
    • 4.13 GATT and the WTO
    • 4.14 GATT/World Trade Organization (WTO)
    • 4.15 Changes from GATT to WTO
    • 4.16 Key Principles of the WTO
    • 4.17 WTO Regime: Developed World
    • 4.18 WTO Regime: Developing world
      • 4.18.1 Is the WTO an effective international organization when it comes to fulfilling its mission?
    • 4.19 Goldstein Rivers and Tomz (2007)
    • 4.20 Gravity Model
    • 4.21 Mansfield and Reinhardt (2008)
    • 4.22 On Volatility of Trade
    • 4.23 The US-China Wind Power Dispute
    • 4.24 History of Programs
    • 4.25 Is WTO Dispute Settlement (DS) Effective?
    • 4.26 Is WTO DS Effective in Assuring a Level Playing Field?
    • 4.27 Is WTO DS Effective in Reconciling Trade and Nontrade Concerns?
    • 4.28 An Alternative Option: Investor-State DS
    • 4.29 Data Challenge
      • 4.29.1 Risque politique
  • 5 Regional Economic Integration & Brexit
    • 5.1 The WTO and RTAs
      • 5.1.1 Guiding Principles of GATT/WTO
      • 5.1.2 WTO and Regional Arrangements
      • 5.1.3 Evolution of RTAs in the World, 1948-2016
      • 5.1.4 Participation Worldwide
      • 5.1.5 What It Looks Like Geographically
      • 5.1.6 Types of Regional Arrangements
      • 5.1.7 Regional Integration in a Snapshot
      • 5.1.8 Expanding RTAs, Trade Flows and the MNE
      • 5.1.9 The Trans-Pacific Partnership: A Building Bloc?
      • 5.1.10 Environmental Influences on MNE Subsidiary Role
    • 5.2 Regional and economic integration
      • 5.2.1 NAFTA and Trade
      • 5.2.2 NAFTA in Context
      • 5.2.3 NAFTA and FDIs
      • 5.2.4 Trade Agreement, FDIs, and National Policies
      • 5.2.5 The New USMCTA (to take effect in 2020)
    • 5.3 Brexit
      • 5.3.1 The reasons for Brexit
      • 5.3.2 The British economy
      • 5.3.3 The Future of the United Kingdom
      • 5.3.4 The consequences for the rest of Europe
      • 5.3.5 Conclusion
    • 5.4 Data Challenge
      • 5.4.1 Political Risk
  • 6 Session 6: Financial Integration and Global Governance
    • 6.1 Agenda
    • 6.2 Instability now and then
      • 6.2.1 Number of Banking and Currency Crises, 1950-2014
    • 6.3 Role of the IMF/WB
      • 6.3.1 The IMF System in Context
      • 6.3.2 International Monetary Fund (IMF)
      • 6.3.3 World Bank
      • 6.3.4 Membership in the IMF/WB
      • 6.3.5 Number of Member Countries, 1945-2015
      • 6.3.6 A Weighted Voting System
    • 6.4 Impact of IMF programs
      • 6.4.1 Incidence of IMF Programs, 1945-2015
      • 6.4.2 Program Incidence, 1950-2014
      • 6.4.3 Lending Volume, 1950-2014
      • 6.4.4 IMF Programs Becoming Bigger, 1960-2014
      • 6.4.5 Long-Term Effects
      • 6.4.6 More Recently…
      • 6.4.7 Total Arrears to the IMF 1984-2014 and Greek Loans
      • 6.4.8 The Largest IMF Programs
      • 6.4.9 Evolution of IMF Mission
      • 6.4.10 Challenges
      • 6.4.11 IMF Forecasts for Global GDP Growth
      • 6.4.12 IMF Forecasts for Global GDP Growth
      • 6.4.13 What does the IMF think of Canada?
    • 6.5 Additional tools at the disposal of countries
      • 6.5.1 China and Its Currency
      • 6.5.2 China’s Foreign Exchange Reserves
      • 6.5.3 China’s Exchange Rate Controls
      • 6.5.4 Germany Versus China Account Surpluses
      • 6.5.5 Germany’s Imbalances: A Chronic Problem
    • 6.6 Data Challenge
      • 6.6.1 Financial Risk
  • 7 Multinational Corporations and Foreign Direct Investments
    • 7.1 FDIs and MNCs
      • 7.1.1 Global 500 2020 – Top 10
      • 7.1.2 The Age of Regional MNCs
      • 7.1.3 Home-Region Oriented MNEs (2000)
      • 7.1.4 Bi-Regional MNEs (2000)
      • 7.1.5 Global MNEs (2000)
      • 7.1.6 Canadian MNEs (2000)
      • 7.1.7 MNEs Not As Global as We Might Think
      • 7.1.8 Market Capitalization – Top 10
      • 7.1.9 MNCs and Global Governance
      • 7.1.10 Multinational Corporations in the World
      • 7.1.11 Exports versus Sales from Subsidiaries
      • 7.1.12 Some Advantages but not a Guarantee of Success
      • 7.1.13 GM “20 billion Loss” Anniversary in Europe
      • 7.1.14 Not Beneficial in All Industries
      • 7.1.15 A Different View to MNCs
    • 7.2 FDIs Worldwide
      • 7.2.1 Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
      • 7.2.2 FDIs Over the Years
      • 7.2.3 FDIs Worldwide
      • 7.2.4 FDIs and Regions
      • 7.2.5 FDIs and Emerging Markets
      • 7.2.6 Labor Productivity and FDIs
      • 7.2.7 FDIs and Canada
    • 7.3 Firms and FDIs
      • 7.3.1 OLI Framework of Multinational Activity
      • 7.3.2 FDIs in Context: Regulatory Restrictiveness
      • 7.3.3 FDIs in Context: Regulatory Restrictiveness
      • 7.3.4 Two Types of Conflicts
    • 7.4 Challenges
      • 7.4.1 Current Challenges
      • 7.4.2 Tax Evasion: The Case of Ireland
      • 7.4.3 Jones et Temouri (2016)
    • 7.5 Data Challenge
      • 7.5.1 Financial Risk
  • 8 Emerging Markets, Base of the Pyramid, and Poverty Alleviation
    • 8.1 The Pyramid of Markets
      • 8.1.1 GDP (current US$)
      • 8.1.2 GDP per capita growth (annual %)
      • 8.1.3 GDP Growth by Country (annual % - 2010-2014)
      • 8.1.4 GDP Growth by Country (annual % - 2015)
      • 8.1.5 Population Growth by Country (annual % - 2010-2014)
      • 8.1.6 Population Growth by Country (annual % - 2015)
    • 8.2 Emerging Markets
      • 8.2.1 GDP per Capita (growth %), BRICS
      • 8.2.2 China: Still “Emergent”?
      • 8.2.3 Different Generations, Different Habits
      • 8.2.4 Differences Across China
    • 8.3 Challenges in Emerging Markets
      • 8.3.1 Infant Mortality Rate in 2019 (per 1,000 births)
      • 8.3.2 Current health expenditure (% of GDP) in 2017
      • 8.3.3 Youth (15-24 year-old) Unemployment Rate (%) 2020
    • 8.4 Base of the Pyramid Markets
    • 8.5 Challenges at the Base of the Pyramid
      • 8.5.1 The Millennium Development Goals
      • 8.5.2 Where are we ?
      • 8.5.3 The Space of NGOs, World Bank, and United Nations
      • 8.5.4 Challenges and Opportunities in Emerging Markets
      • 8.5.5 Different Types of Channels for FDIs and Growth
      • 8.5.6 Foreign direct investment, net inflows (BoP, current US$) by Geographic Regions
      • 8.5.7 Foreign direct investment, net outflows (BoP, current US$) by Geographic Regions
      • 8.5.8 The Government Channel: Creative Solutions
      • 8.5.9 The Enterprise Channel: A Cautionary Tale
      • 8.5.10 The Distribution Channel: A Success Story?
  • 9 Data and Model Biases
  • 10 Grand Challenges: Solving the World’s Problems (and Adapting to the Response)
    • 10.1 Global Problems and Grand Challenges
      • 10.1.1 World’s 10 Most Serious Problems
      • 10.1.2 The Concept of Planetary Boundaries
      • 10.1.3 The Most Serious Problem
    • 10.2 Environmental risk
      • 10.2.1 Climate Change
      • 10.2.2 Problem: Population Growth
      • 10.2.3 Problem: Consumerism
      • 10.2.4 Problem: Climate Change in the Developed World
      • 10.2.5 Problem: Climate Change in Québec
      • 10.2.6 The Scientific Consensus Vs “Public Wisdom”
      • 10.2.7 Climate Change: Developing a Consensus
      • 10.2.8 International Climate Negotiations
      • 10.2.9 Impact of emissions
      • 10.2.10 Air Quality in Real Time
      • 10.2.11 Deaths Caused by Air Pollution
      • 10.2.12 Global Problems as a Result of Institutional Voids
      • 10.2.13 NGOs and the Voids
      • 10.2.14 NGOs and Their Limitations
      • 10.2.15 Tone and mFish : Grand Challenges
      • 10.2.16 Firms and Climate Change
      • 10.2.17 Governments and Climate Change
      • 10.2.18 In Summary
      • 10.2.19 What Can You Do?
      • 10.2.20 To Think About
    • 10.3 Health risk
      • 10.3.1 Today’s global architecture
      • 10.3.2 The global architecture of tomorrow
      • 10.3.3 Conclusion
  • 11 Advanced time series
  • 12 Bayesian Statistics
  • 13 Machine Learning in a Nutshell
  • 14 Deep Learing with Keras Tensorflow
  • 15 Data Sources
    • 15.1 For teaching
    • 15.2 For research
  • References
  • www.warin.ca

Foundations of Quantitative Analysis for International Business with R

Chapter 12 Bayesian Statistics

https://ibecav.netlify.app/post/warspeed-5-priors-and-models-continued/

https://bookdown.org/content/3686/