Foundations of Quantitative Analysis for International Business with R
Motivation
Introduction {#intro}
1
Session 1
2
Globalization and its implications
2.1
Globalization
2.1.1
True or False
2.1.2
Globalization and the World
2.1.3
Globalization and Canada
2.1.4
Globalization and Regions
2.1.5
Not a New Phenomenon
2.1.6
What is Different Today?
2.1.7
Developments in Sea Transportation
2.1.8
Developments in Air Transportation
2.1.9
Developments in Telecommunications
2.1.10
Transportation and Communication Costs
2.1.11
The Internet Revolution
2.1.12
What is Different Today ?
2.1.13
Case in Point: International Capital Investments
2.1.14
New Developments (but Also New Issues) in Governance
2.1.15
Tariff Barriers Worldwide
2.1.16
Trade Barriers: Free Trade Agreements
2.1.17
Free Trade Agreements
2.2
Measures and Impacts
2.2.1
Measuring Globalization
2.2.2
KOF Index: Globalization Worldwide
2.2.3
Measuring Globalization: A Country Perspective
2.2.4
Who’s In The Game and Who’s Out?
2.2.5
Who’s in the Game and Who’s Out?
2.2.6
Who Has Won? Who Has Lost?
2.3
Trends and Challenges
2.3.1
Trends
2.3.2
Intangible vs. Tangible Goods
2.4
Data Challenge
2.4.1
Political Risk
3
Nations in the Global Environment
3.1
Comparative Advantage of Nations
3.1.1
Globalization and the World
3.1.2
Trade and Nations
3.1.3
Theory of Absolute Advantage
3.1.4
Theory of Comparative Advantage
3.1.5
Factors behind Comparative Advantage
3.1.6
Natural Ressources: Not a Guarantee of Wealth
3.1.7
Labor Cost: Another Source of Comparative Advantage
3.1.8
Labor Cost and Productivity
3.1.9
The Global Competitiveness Index in 2019
3.1.10
Porter’s Premises
3.2
Competitive Advantage of Nations
3.2.1
Methods and Key Findings
3.2.2
Porter’s Diamond of National Advantage
3.2.3
Porter’s 8 Commandments for Nations
3.2.4
The Company Agenda
3.2.5
Griffiths and Zammuto’s (2005)
3.2.6
Four Institutional Arrangements
3.3
East of Africa (and West of China)
3.3.1
“East of Africa (and West of China): Chinese Business in Africa”
3.4
New Challenges
3.4.1
New Challenges for Countries
3.4.2
Demographic Changes
3.4.3
Global Value Chains
3.4.4
Technological advances and boundaries
3.4.5
Urban centers versus countries
3.4.6
Urban centers versus countries
3.5
Data Challenge
3.5.1
Political Risk
4
International Trade - Institutions and Regulations
4.1
Agenda
4.2
Why Do Nations Join International Organizations?
4.3
Trade Agreements, Int. Org., and the United States
4.4
Idea behind GATT/WTO, IMF, and IBRD/World Bank
4.5
Tariff Liberalization Since 1947: RTAs, MTNs and Unilateralism
4.6
Evolution of Trade and Tariffs in the US Since 1890
4.7
More Recently, and By Region
4.8
Changes in Average Tariff and Annual GDP Growth
4.9
Average Tariffs by Type of Economy
4.10
Non Tariff Barriers
4.11
Unilateral Tariff Cutting by Emerging Markets
4.12
Still: (Trade-Related) Conflicts Remain…
4.13
GATT and the WTO
4.14
GATT/World Trade Organization (WTO)
4.15
Changes from GATT to WTO
4.16
Key Principles of the WTO
4.17
WTO Regime: Developed World
4.18
WTO Regime: Developing world
4.18.1
Is the WTO an effective international organization when it comes to fulfilling its mission?
4.19
Goldstein Rivers and Tomz (2007)
4.20
Gravity Model
4.21
Mansfield and Reinhardt (2008)
4.22
On Volatility of Trade
4.23
The US-China Wind Power Dispute
4.24
History of Programs
4.25
Is WTO Dispute Settlement (DS) Effective?
4.26
Is WTO DS Effective in Assuring a Level Playing Field?
4.27
Is WTO DS Effective in Reconciling Trade and Nontrade Concerns?
4.28
An Alternative Option: Investor-State DS
4.29
Data Challenge
4.29.1
Risque politique
5
Regional Economic Integration & Brexit
5.1
The WTO and RTAs
5.1.1
Guiding Principles of GATT/WTO
5.1.2
WTO and Regional Arrangements
5.1.3
Evolution of RTAs in the World, 1948-2016
5.1.4
Participation Worldwide
5.1.5
What It Looks Like Geographically
5.1.6
Types of Regional Arrangements
5.1.7
Regional Integration in a Snapshot
5.1.8
Expanding RTAs, Trade Flows and the MNE
5.1.9
The Trans-Pacific Partnership: A Building Bloc?
5.1.10
Environmental Influences on MNE Subsidiary Role
5.2
Regional and economic integration
5.2.1
NAFTA and Trade
5.2.2
NAFTA in Context
5.2.3
NAFTA and FDIs
5.2.4
Trade Agreement, FDIs, and National Policies
5.2.5
The New USMCTA (to take effect in 2020)
5.3
Brexit
5.3.1
The reasons for Brexit
5.3.2
The British economy
5.3.3
The Future of the United Kingdom
5.3.4
The consequences for the rest of Europe
5.3.5
Conclusion
5.4
Data Challenge
5.4.1
Political Risk
6
Session 6: Financial Integration and Global Governance
6.1
Agenda
6.2
Instability now and then
6.2.1
Number of Banking and Currency Crises, 1950-2014
6.3
Role of the IMF/WB
6.3.1
The IMF System in Context
6.3.2
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
6.3.3
World Bank
6.3.4
Membership in the IMF/WB
6.3.5
Number of Member Countries, 1945-2015
6.3.6
A Weighted Voting System
6.4
Impact of IMF programs
6.4.1
Incidence of IMF Programs, 1945-2015
6.4.2
Program Incidence, 1950-2014
6.4.3
Lending Volume, 1950-2014
6.4.4
IMF Programs Becoming Bigger, 1960-2014
6.4.5
Long-Term Effects
6.4.6
More Recently…
6.4.7
Total Arrears to the IMF 1984-2014 and Greek Loans
6.4.8
The Largest IMF Programs
6.4.9
Evolution of IMF Mission
6.4.10
Challenges
6.4.11
IMF Forecasts for Global GDP Growth
6.4.12
IMF Forecasts for Global GDP Growth
6.4.13
What does the IMF think of Canada?
6.5
Additional tools at the disposal of countries
6.5.1
China and Its Currency
6.5.2
China’s Foreign Exchange Reserves
6.5.3
China’s Exchange Rate Controls
6.5.4
Germany Versus China Account Surpluses
6.5.5
Germany’s Imbalances: A Chronic Problem
6.6
Data Challenge
6.6.1
Financial Risk
7
Multinational Corporations and Foreign Direct Investments
7.1
FDIs and MNCs
7.1.1
Global 500 2020 – Top 10
7.1.2
The Age of Regional MNCs
7.1.3
Home-Region Oriented MNEs (2000)
7.1.4
Bi-Regional MNEs (2000)
7.1.5
Global MNEs (2000)
7.1.6
Canadian MNEs (2000)
7.1.7
MNEs Not As Global as We Might Think
7.1.8
Market Capitalization – Top 10
7.1.9
MNCs and Global Governance
7.1.10
Multinational Corporations in the World
7.1.11
Exports versus Sales from Subsidiaries
7.1.12
Some Advantages but not a Guarantee of Success
7.1.13
GM “20 billion Loss” Anniversary in Europe
7.1.14
Not Beneficial in All Industries
7.1.15
A Different View to MNCs
7.2
FDIs Worldwide
7.2.1
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
7.2.2
FDIs Over the Years
7.2.3
FDIs Worldwide
7.2.4
FDIs and Regions
7.2.5
FDIs and Emerging Markets
7.2.6
Labor Productivity and FDIs
7.2.7
FDIs and Canada
7.3
Firms and FDIs
7.3.1
OLI Framework of Multinational Activity
7.3.2
FDIs in Context: Regulatory Restrictiveness
7.3.3
FDIs in Context: Regulatory Restrictiveness
7.3.4
Two Types of Conflicts
7.4
Challenges
7.4.1
Current Challenges
7.4.2
Tax Evasion: The Case of Ireland
7.4.3
Jones et Temouri (2016)
7.5
Data Challenge
7.5.1
Financial Risk
8
Emerging Markets, Base of the Pyramid, and Poverty Alleviation
8.1
The Pyramid of Markets
8.1.1
GDP (current US$)
8.1.2
GDP per capita growth (annual %)
8.1.3
GDP Growth by Country (annual % - 2010-2014)
8.1.4
GDP Growth by Country (annual % - 2015)
8.1.5
Population Growth by Country (annual % - 2010-2014)
8.1.6
Population Growth by Country (annual % - 2015)
8.2
Emerging Markets
8.2.1
GDP per Capita (growth %), BRICS
8.2.2
China: Still “Emergent”?
8.2.3
Different Generations, Different Habits
8.2.4
Differences Across China
8.3
Challenges in Emerging Markets
8.3.1
Infant Mortality Rate in 2019 (per 1,000 births)
8.3.2
Current health expenditure (% of GDP) in 2017
8.3.3
Youth (15-24 year-old) Unemployment Rate (%) 2020
8.4
Base of the Pyramid Markets
8.5
Challenges at the Base of the Pyramid
8.5.1
The Millennium Development Goals
8.5.2
Where are we ?
8.5.3
The Space of NGOs, World Bank, and United Nations
8.5.4
Challenges and Opportunities in Emerging Markets
8.5.5
Different Types of Channels for FDIs and Growth
8.5.6
Foreign direct investment, net inflows (BoP, current US$) by Geographic Regions
8.5.7
Foreign direct investment, net outflows (BoP, current US$) by Geographic Regions
8.5.8
The Government Channel: Creative Solutions
8.5.9
The Enterprise Channel: A Cautionary Tale
8.5.10
The Distribution Channel: A Success Story?
9
Data and Model Biases
10
Grand Challenges: Solving the World’s Problems (and Adapting to the Response)
10.1
Global Problems and Grand Challenges
10.1.1
World’s 10 Most Serious Problems
10.1.2
The Concept of Planetary Boundaries
10.1.3
The Most Serious Problem
10.2
Environmental risk
10.2.1
Climate Change
10.2.2
Problem: Population Growth
10.2.3
Problem: Consumerism
10.2.4
Problem: Climate Change in the Developed World
10.2.5
Problem: Climate Change in Québec
10.2.6
The Scientific Consensus Vs “Public Wisdom”
10.2.7
Climate Change: Developing a Consensus
10.2.8
International Climate Negotiations
10.2.9
Impact of emissions
10.2.10
Air Quality in Real Time
10.2.11
Deaths Caused by Air Pollution
10.2.12
Global Problems as a Result of Institutional Voids
10.2.13
NGOs and the Voids
10.2.14
NGOs and Their Limitations
10.2.15
Tone and mFish : Grand Challenges
10.2.16
Firms and Climate Change
10.2.17
Governments and Climate Change
10.2.18
In Summary
10.2.19
What Can You Do?
10.2.20
To Think About
10.3
Health risk
10.3.1
Today’s global architecture
10.3.2
The global architecture of tomorrow
10.3.3
Conclusion
11
Advanced time series
12
Bayesian Statistics
13
Machine Learning in a Nutshell
14
Deep Learing with Keras Tensorflow
15
Data Sources
15.1
For teaching
15.2
For research
References
www.warin.ca
Foundations of Quantitative Analysis for International Business with R
Chapter 1
Session 1