Definition of Maritime Choke Point
“Choke points are strategic, narrow passages that connect two larger areas to one another. When it comes to maritime trade, these are typically straits or canals that see high volumes of traffic because of their optimal location.” - (Ang 2021)
Although maritime transport has lost its importance for the transport of people, it has become the most important mode of transport for goods. Indeed, approximately 80% of global merchandise is traded by sea. As an essential part of international trade, commercial shipping relies on strategic trade routes to move goods efficiently. However, certain points along these routes pose a risk to the whole system. In fact, known as maritime bottlenecks or choke points, they seems to be defined as critical passages because of their ideal location that allow a shorter maritime route. Therefore, they are largely used to trade large volumes of commodities by ship.
Map of Maritime Choke Points
Maritime choke points are of major strategic interest, especially in the global economy and freight shipments. Here’s a map of the world’s key maritime choke points (Ang 2021):
Risks of Choke Points
Despite the importance of bottlenecks for the efficiency of maritime transport, Ang (2021) establishes however two types of risks - structural and geopolitical- related to their use. The structural risk is defined as potential traffic jam caused by ships crash. The geopolitical risk highlight choke points as pressure points during times of political unrest. Ang (2021) also specify that the type and degree of risk varies, depending on location. The following table represents the risks of eight major choke points.
| location | Temperature extremes | Flood and drought | Storms | Haze and fog | Conflict | Terrorist attack | Piracy | Cyberattack | Trade and transit controls | Disrepair | Unforced delays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panama Canal | Low risk | High risk | Low risk | Medium risk | Low risk | Low risk | Low risk | Low risk | Low risk | Medium risk | Low risk |
| Suez Canal | Low risk | Low risk | High risk | Medium risk | Low risk | Medium risk | Low risk | Low risk | Low risk | Low risk | Low risk |
| Strait of Malacca | Low risk | Low risk | Low risk | Medium risk | Low risk | Low risk | High risk | Low risk | Low risk | Low risk | Low risk |
| Strait of Hormuz | Low risk | Low risk | Low risk | Low risk | Medium risk | Low risk | High risk | Low risk | Low risk | Low risk | Low risk |
| Strait of Bab el-Mandeb | Low risk | Low risk | Low risk | Low risk | Medium risk | Medium risk | High risk | Low risk | Low risk | Low risk | Low risk |
| Turkish Straits | Low risk | Low risk | High risk | Medium risk | Medium risk | Low risk | Low risk | Low risk | Low risk | Low risk | Low risk |
| Dover Strait | Low risk | Low risk | Medium risk | Low risk | Low risk | Low risk | Low risk | Low risk | Low risk | Low risk | High risk |
| Strait of Gibraltar | Low risk | Low risk | Low risk | Low risk | Low risk | Low risk | Low risk | Low risk | Low risk | Low risk | Low risk |
– Warin (2021b) and Wellesley et al. (2017). High risk = three or more known disruptions since 2002; Medium risk = one or two known disruptions since 2002; Low risk = no known disruptions since 2002.
A Closer Look: Panama Canal Choke Point
Choke points are considered vulnerable passages but critical waterways for international sea trade. The relevance to put the Panama Canal in context is necessary to understand the importance to the global trade.
The Panama Canal is a maritime lock-type canal of 77 km long that crosses the Isthmus of Panama in Central America, that provides a shortcut for ships traveling between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. Its impact on sea trade was such significant that ships no longer needed to travel via Cape Horn and the Drake Passage at the southern tip of South America. This alternative route save approximately 8000 nautical miles which reduce boat trips by 21 days. (Ang 2021)
Alternative of Panama Canal Choke Point
Because of it’s potential risks, an alternative of the Panama Canal route has been proposed in the project entitled “Canadian Northern Corridor Research Program” (Warin 2021a).
For instance, in order to analyse the potential impact of the Northern Corridor on the global maritime traffic, we took more than 20 000 ship voyages passing through the Panama Canal and calculated their marine distances.
To analyse the applicability and the profitability of the Canadian Northwest Passage, we took the same 20 000 routes and make them passed hypothetically through the Canadian Arctic.
We then compared the distances to see which trips were shorter by the Northern Corridor. Out of these 20 000 routes, more than 9000 are shorter in distances by the Northern Corridor (distances are in nautical miles). Here’s a look at some of these routes.
| Port 1 | Port 2 | Port3 | Port 4 | Total distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COVE POINT | SAKAI | SAKAI | MELKOYA | -23510.31 |
| MARCUS HOOK | YANTAI | YEOSU | MARCUS HOOK | -22178.82 |
| COVE POINT | HIMEJI | HIMEJI | COVE POINT | -21382.07 |
| COVE POINT | SAKAI | SAKAI | COVE POINT | -21363.37 |
| COVE POINT | SAKAI | HIMEJI | COVE POINT | -21330.18 |
This change of route through the Northern Corridor passage would inevitably affect the world trade. Therefore, we have put together a top 10 list of countries that would be most affected by this new route. By looking at the numbers, the United States is the country with the most number of stops for each port. Followed by Japan, South Korea and China.
| Country, Port 1 | No. of Stops | Country, Port 2 | No. of Stops | Country, Port 3 | No. of Stops | Country, Port 4 | No. of Stops |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 3657 | United States | 3207 | United States | 4095 | United States | 4409 |
| South Korea | 1118 | China | 1528 | Japan | 1479 | Japan | 1274 |
| Japan | 1099 | Japan | 1474 | South Korea | 892 | China | 662 |
| China | 864 | South Korea | 869 | Panama | 697 | South Korea | 604 |
| Mexico | 521 | Mexico | 241 | China | 468 | Panama | 209 |
Impact of Northern Corridor Passage on Trade
As we observed above multiple countries might be affected by this change of maritime route. One important aspect that might especially affected is the trade of these countries. To observe this possible change, we decided to extract the exports and imports per partners in 2019 from UN Comtrade of the countries that we listed above.
The table below represents the top 5 partners in terms of exports for the United States, Japan, South Korea and China. For each of these countries, we notice that the top 5 partners contains at least 2 countries of the reporters.
The table below represents the top 5 partners in terms of imports for the United States, Japan, South Korea and China. For each of these countries, we also notice that the top 5 partners contains at least 2 countries of the reporters.
It would be interesting to look at the Top 5 commodities traded by sea possibly impacted by this new route. We took the most important partner of each country in terms of exports.
The following table displays the CIF value (Cost, insurance and freight, in US$, nominal) as an input variable of internationally traded commodities between origin (exporting country) and destination (importing country) by year. (Data are from UNCTADstat)
|
Commodities traded by sea from China to USA
|
|
|---|---|
| Commodities | CIF value (US dollars) |
| Data-processing machines, automatic, portable, weighing […] | $21,319,897,537 |
| Telephones for cellular networks “mobile telephones” or […] | $20,520,626,636 |
| Machines for the reception, conversion and transmission […] | $10,608,134,187 |
| Tricycles, scooters, pedal cars and similar wheeled toy […] | $9,156,480,306 |
| Parts and accessories of automatic data-processing mach […] | $6,514,122,928 |
|
Commodities traded by sea from Japan to USA
|
|
|---|---|
| Commodities | CIF value (US dollars) |
| Motor cars and other motor vehicles principally designe […] | $23,497,654,676 |
| Motor cars and other motor vehicles principally designe […] | $9,379,690,944 |
| Gear boxes and parts thereof, for tractors, motor vehic […] | $2,387,211,240 |
| Motor cars and other motor vehicles principally designe […] | $2,048,037,747 |
| Parts and accessories, for tractors, motor vehicles for […] | $1,880,141,014 |
|
Commodities traded by sea from USA to Canada
|
|
|---|---|
| Commodities | CIF value (US dollars) |
| Spark-ignition reciprocating piston engine, of a kind u […] | $800,490,557 |
| Denatured ethyl alcohol and other spirits of any streng […] | $480,865,453 |
| Non-alcoholic beverages (excl. water, fruit or vegetabl […] | $422,819,655 |
| Fresh or chilled bovine meat, boneless - kilograms […] | $376,832,448 |
| Sanitary towels (pads) and tampons, napkins and napkin […] | $361,612,487 |
|
Commodities traded by sea from Korea to USA
|
|
|---|---|
| Commodities | CIF value (US dollars) |
| Motor cars and other motor vehicles principally designe […] | $9,614,180,236 |
| Telephones for cellular networks “mobile telephones” or […] | $3,518,108,275 |
| Motor cars and other motor vehicles principally designe […] | $2,351,780,618 |
| Medium oils and preparations, of petroleum or bituminou […] | $2,152,957,831 |
| Motor cars and other motor vehicles principally designe […] | $2,123,136,141 |