References

Acemoglu, Daron, Vasco M. Carvalho, Asuman Ozdaglar, and Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi. 2012. “The Network Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations.” Econometrica 80 (5): 1977–2016. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA9623.

Acharya, Amitav. 2014. The End of American World Order. Cambridge: Polity Press.

Alden, Chris. 2007. China in Africa. London: Zed Books.

Antràs, Pol, and Robert W. Staiger. 2012. “Offshoring and the Role of Trade Agreements.” American Economic Review 102 (7): 3140–83. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.102.7.3140.

ASEANstats. 2023. “ASEAN Statistical Highlights 2023.” ASEAN Secretariat. https://www.aseanstats.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/ASH-2023-v1.pdf.

Baldwin, Richard. 1997. “The Causes of Regionalism.” The World Economy 20 (7): 865–88. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9701.00078.

———. 2011. “21st Century Regionalism: Filling the Gap Between 21st Century Trade and 20th Century Trade Rules.” World Trade Review 10 (1): 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1474745610000511.

———. 2016. The Great Convergence: Information Technology and the New Globalization. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

Baldwin, Richard E., Philippe Martin, and Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano. 2001. “Global Income Divergence, Trade, and Industrialization: The Geography of Growth Take-Offs.” Journal of Economic Growth 6 (1): 5–37. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1009820207410.

Baldwin, Richard, and Patrick Low, eds. 2009. Multilateralizing Regionalism: Challenges for the Global Trading System. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Berger, J. M., and Jonathon Morgan. 2015. “The ISIS Twitter Census: Defining and Describing the Population of ISIS Supporters on Twitter.” Washington, DC: Brookings Institution.

Berman, Eli, Jacob N. Shapiro, and Joseph H. Felter. 2011. “Can Hearts and Minds Be Bought? The Economics of Counterinsurgency in Iraq.” Journal of Political Economy 119 (4): 766–819. https://doi.org/10.1086/661983.

Betz, David. 2025. “Civil War Comes to the West, Part II: Strategic Realities.” Military Strategy Magazine 10 (2): 6–16. https://doi.org/10.64148/msm.v10i2.1.

Bhagwati, Jagdish. 1993. “Regionalism and Multilateralism: An Overview.” In New Dimensions in Regional Integration, edited by Jaime de Melo and Arvind Panagariya, 22–51. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

———. 1995. “U.S. Trade Policy: The Infatuation with FTAs.” Edited by Jagdish Bhagwati and Anne O. Krueger, 1–18.

Blackwill, Robert D., and Jennifer M. Harris. 2016. War by Other Means: Geoeconomics and Statecraft. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

Cadot, Olivier, and Jaime de Melo. 2008. “Why OECD Countries Should Reform Rules of Origin.” World Bank Research Observer 23 (1): 77–105. https://doi.org/10.1093/wbro/lkm012.

Cai, Peter. 2017. Understanding China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Sydney: Lowy Institute for International Policy.

Caldara, Dario, and Matteo Iacoviello. 2022. “Measuring Geopolitical Risk.” American Economic Review 112 (4): 1194–1225. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20191823.

Carvalho, Vasco M., Makoto Nirei, Yukiko U. Saito, and Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi. 2021. “Supply Chain Disruptions: Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 136 (2): 1255–1321. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjaa044.

Cederman, Lars-Erik, and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch. 2009. “Introduction to Special Issue on Disaggregating Civil War.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 53 (4): 487–95. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002709336459.

Chesney, Robert, and Danielle K. Citron. 2019. “Deepfakes and the New Disinformation War: The Coming Age of Post-Truth Geopolitics.” Foreign Affairs 98 (1).

Chopra, Sunil, and ManMohan S. Sodhi. 2014. “Reducing the Risk of Supply Chain Disruptions.” MIT Sloan Management Review 55 (3): 73–80.

Connolly, Richard. 2018. Russia’s Response to Sanctions: How Western Economic Statecraft Is Reshaping Political Economy in Russia. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108227346.

Cooley, Alexander, and Daniel Nexon. 2013. “The Empire Will Compensate You: The Structural Dynamics of the u.s. Overseas Basing Network.” Perspectives on Politics 11 (4): 1034–50. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1537592713003168.

Devlin, Robert, and Antoni Estevadeordal. 2001. “What’s New in the New Regionalism in the Americas?” Integration & Trade 6 (15): 17–35.

Dür, Andreas, Leonardo Baccini, and Manfred Elsig. 2014. “The Design of International Trade Agreements: Introducing a New Dataset.” The Review of International Organizations 9 (3): 353–75. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11558-013-9179-8.

Estevadeordal, Antoni, and Kati Suominen. 2008. Gatekeepers of Global Commerce: Rules of Origin and International Economic Integration. Washington, DC: Inter-American Development Bank.

Ethier, Wilfred J. 1998. “The New Regionalism.” The Economic Journal 108 (449): 1149–61. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0297.00335.

Eurostat. 2025. “Intra-EU Trade in Goods: Main Features.” Statistics Explained (PDF extract). https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/SEPDF/cache/26044.pdf.

Farrell, Henry, and Abraham L. Newman. 2019. “Weaponized Interdependence: How Global Economic Networks Shape State Coercion.” International Security 44 (1): 42–79. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00351.

Fearon, James D., and David D. Laitin. 2003. “Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War.” American Political Science Review 97 (1): 75–90. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055403000534.

Fortna, Virginia Page. 2008. Does Peacekeeping Work? Shaping Belligerents’ Choices After Civil War. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Freund, Caroline, and Emanuel Ornelas. 2010. “Regional Trade Agreements.” Annual Review of Economics 2 (1): 139–66. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.economics.102308.124455.

Giles, Keir. 2019. Moscow Rules: What Drives Russia to Confront the West. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press.

Helleiner, Eric. 2014. The Status Quo Crisis: Global Financial Governance After the 2008 Meltdown. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Hirschman, Albert O. 1945. National Power and the Structure of Foreign Trade. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.

Hoekman, Bernard, and Michel Kostecki. 2009. The Political Economy of the World Trading System. 3rd ed. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Hoekman, Bernard, and Petros C. Mavroidis. 2015. “WTO ‘à La Carte’ or ‘Menu Du Jour’? Assessing the Case for Plurilateral Agreements.” European Journal of International Law 26 (2): 319–43. https://doi.org/10.1093/ejil/chv024.

Höffler, Anke, John Heisey, and Måns Söderbom. 2011. “Peacekeeping and the Duration of Peace After Civil War.” World Development 39 (10): 1830–43. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2011.03.005.

Hofmann, Claudia, Alberto Osnago, and Michele Ruta. 2017. “Horizontal Depth: A New Database on the Content of Preferential Trade Agreements.” Policy Research Working Paper. World Bank.

Horn, Henrik, Petros C. Mavroidis, and André Sapir. 2010. “Beyond the WTO? An Anatomy of EU and US Preferential Trade Agreements.” The World Economy 33 (11): 1565–88. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2010.01273.x.

Howard, Philip N., Bharath Ganesh, Dimitra Liotsiou, John Kelly, and Camille François. 2018. “The IRA, Social Media and Political Polarization in the United States, 2012–2018.” Oxford, UK: Project on Computational Propaganda, Oxford Internet Institute.

Huang, Yiping. 2016. “Understanding China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Motivation, Framework and Assessment.” China Economic Review 40: 314–21. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2016.07.007.

Hurrell, Andrew. 2006. “Hegemony, Liberalism and Global Order: What Space for Would-Be Great Powers?” International Affairs 82 (1): 1–19. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2346.2006.00512.x.

Jackson, John H. 1997. The World Trading System: Law and Policy of International Economic Relations. 2nd ed. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

Jaffrelot, Christophe. 2019. Modi’s India: Hindu Nationalism and the Rise of Ethnic Democracy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Jones, Erik. 2019. The Economic Crisis and the European Union. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Kalkman, Jeroen. 2020. “Military Spending and Democracy: A Review.” Defence and Peace Economics 31 (4): 389–408. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2019.1632575.

Kharraz, Amin, Sajjad Arshad, Collin Mulliner, William Robertson, and Engin Kirda. 2016. “UNVEIL: A Large-Scale, Automated Approach to Detecting Ransomware.” In Proceedings of the 25th USENIX Security Symposium, 757–72. Austin, TX: USENIX Association.

Lederman, Daniel, William F. Maloney, and Luis Servén. 2005. Lessons from NAFTA for Latin America and the Caribbean. Washington, DC: World Bank.

Levitsky, Steven, and Daniel Ziblatt. 2018. How Democracies Die. New York, NY: Crown.

Limão, Nuno. 2006. “Preferential Trade Agreements as Stumbling Blocks for Multilateral Trade Liberalization: Evidence for the United States.” American Economic Review 96 (3): 896–914. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.96.3.896.

Luttwak, Edward N. 1990. “From Geopolitics to Geo-Economics: Logic of Conflict, Grammar of Commerce.” The National Interest, no. 20: 17–23.

Mattoo, Aaditya, Nadia Rocha, and Michele Ruta, eds. 2020. Handbook of Deep Trade Agreements. Washington, DC: World Bank.

McIntosh, Tyler, Byungkyu Chae, Brian Jaeger, and William H. Hsu. 2021. “Ransomware Mitigation in the Modern Era: A Comprehensive Review, Research Challenges, and Future Directions.” ACM Computing Surveys 54 (9): 1–36. https://doi.org/10.1145/3479393.

Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores, Comercio Internacional y Culto (Argentina). 2024. “Mercosur Total Trade.” Presentation. https://cancilleria.gob.ar/userfiles/ut/ppt_mercosur-_270624_english_.pdf.

Nasr, Vali. 2007. The Shia Revival: How Conflicts Within Islam Will Shape the Future. New York: W. W. Norton & Company.

National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START). 2023. “Global Terrorism Database (GTD).” College Park, MD: Dataset.

Nayyar, Deepak, and Gaurav Nayyar. 2024. “Made in India: Industrial Policy in a Changing World.” Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade 24 (1): 1–27. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10842-024-00417-6.

Norris, Pippa, and Ronald Inglehart. 2019. Cultural Backlash: Trump, Brexit, and Authoritarian Populism. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108595841.

Nye, Joseph S. 2004. Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics. New York: PublicAffairs.

Organisation of Islamic Cooperation. n.d. “Member States.” Official website. https://www.oic-oci.org/states/?lan=en.

Osnago, Alberto, Nadia Rocha, and Michele Ruta. 2018. “Deep Trade Agreements and Vertical FDI: The Devil Is in the Details.” Canadian Journal of Economics 51 (4): 1513–42. https://doi.org/10.1111/caje.12367.

Passas, Nikos. 2003. “Informal Value Transfer Systems, Terrorism and Money Laundering.” Washington, DC: National Institute of Justice, U.S. Department of Justice.

Pettit, Timothy J., Joseph Fiksel, and Keely L. Croxton. 2010. “Ensuring Supply Chain Resilience: Development of a Conceptual Framework.” Journal of Business Logistics 31 (1): 1–21. https://doi.org/10.1002/j.2158-1592.2010.tb00125.x.

Pew Research Center. 2015. “The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010–2050.” Washington, DC: Pew Research Center. https://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2015/03/PF_15.04.02_ProjectionsFullReport.pdf.

Putnam, Robert D. 2000. Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community. New York, NY: Simon & Schuster.

Raleigh, Clionadh, Andrew Linke, Håvard Hegre, and Joakim Karlsen. 2010. “Introducing ACLED: An Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset.” Journal of Peace Research 47 (5): 651–60. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343310378914.

Ravenhill, John. 2010. “The ‘New East Asian Regionalism’: A Political Domino Effect.” Review of International Political Economy 17 (2): 178–208. https://doi.org/10.1080/09692290903426849.

Rose, Andrew K. 2004. “Do We Really Know That the WTO Increases Trade?” American Economic Review 94 (1): 98–114. https://doi.org/10.1257/000282804322970724.

Ruggie, John Gerard. 1982. “International Regimes, Transactions, and Change: Embedded Liberalism in the Postwar Economic Order.” International Organization 36 (2): 379–415.

Segal, Adam. 2016. The Hacked World Order: How Nations Fight, Trade, Maneuver, and Manipulate in the Digital Age. New York, NY: PublicAffairs.

Shambaugh, David. 2013. China Goes Global: The Partial Power. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Sheffi, Yossi. 2005. The Resilient Enterprise: Overcoming Vulnerability for Competitive Advantage. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

Subramanian, Arvind, and Shang-Jin Wei. 2007. “The WTO Promotes Trade, Strongly but Unevenly.” Journal of International Economics 72 (1): 151–75. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2006.07.007.

Tang, Christopher S. 2006. “Perspectives in Supply Chain Risk Management.” International Journal of Production Economics 103 (2): 451–88. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpe.2005.12.006.

Toft, Monica Duffy. 2007. “Getting Religion? The Puzzling Case of Islam and Civil War.” International Security 31 (4): 97–131. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec.2007.31.4.97.

Tollefsen, Andreas Forø, and Halvard Buhaug. 2015. “Insurgency and Inaccessibility.” International Studies Review 17 (1): 6–25. https://doi.org/10.1111/misr.12215.

Trefler, Daniel. 2004. “The Long and Short of the Canada–U.S. Free Trade Agreement.” American Economic Review 94 (4): 870–95. https://doi.org/10.1257/0002828042002633.

United Nations Economic Commission for Africa. 2016. “Assessing Regional Integration in Africa VII: Innovation, Competitiveness and Regional Integration.” Addis Ababa: UNECA.

———. 2024. “African Countries Trading More Outside the Continent Than Amongst Themselves, ECA Report.” ECA story. https://www.uneca.org/stories/african-countries-trading-more-outside-the-continent-than-amongst-themselves%2C-eca-report.

Viner, Jacob. 1950. The Customs Union Issue. New York: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Voeten, Erik, Anton Strezhnev, and Michael Bailey. 2009. “Voting in the United Nations General Assembly.” Harvard Dataverse. https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/LEJUQZ.

Walker, Christopher. 2018. “What Is ‘Sharp Power’?” Journal of Democracy 29 (3): 9–23. https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2018.0041.

Walker, Christopher, and Jessica Ludwig. 2017. “The Meaning of Sharp Power: How Authoritarian States Project Influence.” Foreign Affairs.

Walter, Barbara F. 2022. How Civil Wars Start: And How to Stop Them. New York, NY: Crown.

Warin, Thierry. 2024. “Disinformation in the Digital Age: Impacts on Democracy and Strategies for Mitigation.” CIRANO Papers 2024PR-03. Montréal, QC: CIRANO. https://doi.org/10.54932/GQWB1497.