[Conference] La Banque de la République d’Haïti (BRH) et son contexte international - 2026

BRH

Clicquez ici pour accéder à la présentation

Description

The proposed conference is designed as a structured analytical intervention aimed at supporting the Banque de la République d’Haïti in strengthening the conceptual and operational foundations of monetary policy in a context characterized by structural constraints, limited data availability, and evolving financial infrastructures. It situates Haiti within the broader international debate on monetary policy credibility, while explicitly addressing the specific institutional and informational frictions that shape policy effectiveness in small, open, and partially dollarized economies.

The first part of the conference revisits the theoretical foundations of monetary policy credibility, drawing on the canonical contributions of Kydland and Prescott (1977) and Barro and Gordon (1983), and extending to the New Keynesian framework articulated by Clarida, Galí, and Gertler (1999) and Woodford (2003). Particular emphasis is placed on the role of expectations, time inconsistency, and institutional commitment mechanisms. Recent developments in the literature are integrated to highlight the increasing importance of central bank communication, expectation anchoring, and the risks associated with credibility erosion in environments where institutional independence may be fragile.

The second part examines the transmission channels of monetary policy, moving from traditional mechanisms—interest rate, credit, and exchange rate channels—to more recent perspectives that incorporate heterogeneity across agents and financial structures. The analysis explicitly considers the limitations of these channels in the Haitian context, where financial intermediation remains shallow, informal economic activity is significant, and external flows such as remittances play a central macroeconomic role. The objective is not only to describe these constraints, but to reinterpret them as structural parameters that must be integrated into policy design rather than treated as deviations from benchmark models.

The third part introduces the contribution of data science and new data sources to the analysis of local economic dynamics. Building on recent advances in applied econometrics and machine learning, the conference demonstrates how high-frequency data—such as payment transactions, mobile phone activity, and satellite imagery—can be used to reconstruct local demand patterns at a granular level. This approach is particularly relevant in data-scarce environments, where traditional statistical systems do not provide sufficient temporal or spatial resolution for effective policy calibration. The discussion highlights both the methodological opportunities and the associated risks, including model dependence, measurement error, and issues of representativeness.

The final part proposes an integrated analytical framework for monetary policy in Haiti, in which credibility, transmission mechanisms, and data infrastructure are treated as interdependent dimensions of policy effectiveness. The central argument is that, in such a context, credibility cannot rely solely on formal rules or institutional mandates, but must increasingly be supported by informational capacity and transparency. Strengthening the ability of the central bank to observe, interpret, and communicate economic conditions in real time becomes a core component of policy itself.

Overall, the conference aims to provide both a rigorous theoretical grounding and a set of operational perspectives tailored to the realities faced by the Banque de la République d’Haïti. It is conceived as a bridge between established macroeconomic theory and emerging data-driven approaches, with the objective of enhancing the analytical toolkit available for monetary policy in complex and data-constrained environments.

Sources

Touré, A. A. K., Trépanier, M., & Warin, T. (2025). Cross-Border Producer Price Transmission in North American Manufacturing: Evidence from Canada–United States Industry Networks (2025S-32, Cahiers scientifiques, CIRANO.) https://doi.org/10.54932/GCPY2392

Warin, T. (2025). Beware Diworsification: A Firm- and Supply-Chain Approach to Trade Resilience (2025s-24, Cahiers scientifiques, CIRANO.) https://doi.org/10.54932/SMRG3827

Touré, A. A. K., Trépanier, M., & Warin, T. (2025). Economic Interdependencies in the Great Lakes–St. Lawrence Region: A Dynamic Analysis of Manufacturing Connectedness (2025s-25, Cahiers scientifiques, CIRANO.) https://doi.org/10.54932/RLOK4837

Warin, T. (2025). Gravity Models versus Comparative Advantage: It is not enough for trade to be free; trade should also be fit (2025s-21, Cahiers scientifiques, CIRANO.) https://doi.org/10.54932/XQAY2333

Warin, T. (2025). Not Efficient, Not Optimal: The Biases That Built Global Trade and the Data Tools That Could Fix It (2025s-17, Cahiers scientifiques, CIRANO.) https://doi.org/10.54932/ZIHS7852

Warin, T. (2025). Historical and Contemporary Evolution of International Trade: From Mercantilism to the Platform Economy (2025s-12, Cahiers scientifiques, CIRANO.) https://doi.org/10.54932/IQEN6866

Chaffa, L., Trépanier, M., & Warin, T. (2025). Beyond PPML: Exploring Machine Learning Alternatives for Gravity Model Estimation in International Trade (2025s-14, Cahiers scientifiques, CIRANO.) https://doi.org/10.54932/BFKY4995

Warin, T. (2025). Canada–U.S. Trade in a Globalized Economy: Elasticities, Asymmetries, and Policy Imperatives (2025PR-01, Pour réflexion, CIRANO.) https://doi.org/10.54932/SLPH3996

Warin, T., Trépanier, M., & De Marcellis-Warin, N. (2024). Measuring Competitiveness in the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Region Using a Digital Twin: A Geospatial Data Science Approach (2024PR-04, Pour réflexion, CIRANO.) https://doi.org/10.54932/DKBC6587